An initial powerpoint slide “Sigma for Variance” has been put up at http://knordtvedt.home.bresnan.net which derives, based on simplest mutation rule, the full statistical sigmas for variance from founding haplotype, used sometimes to do clade TMRCA estimates. I will add later slides showing the results for coalescence age self-variance and for the interclade variance; those expressions are somewhat more complex but also have the important properties of not indefinately collapsing toward zero as haplotype sample population size grows bigger. In other words; if every one of the several million I1 haplotypes in the world today were measured and put into a database, the sigmas for their STR variances would still be hefty and about the same size as we get today using just a hundred or so well sampled haplotypes. This is because trees collapse to a founder and haplotypes share part of their branch lines with other haplotypes and necessarily are correlated in their mutational outcomes.