I do use population estimates, and population densities, for Europe at earlier times too. But such early estimates are particularly crude. Modern humans first entered Europe around 45,000 years ago, and for the period 36,000 BC - 26,000 BC, the estimate I use for the population of Europe at that time is anywhere from just 3,000 to 30,000 people - so there was a very low human population in Europe then. About 1/3rd of those people would have lived in the Franco-Cantabrian region. And the Neanderthal population at that time could have been anywhere from just 1,000 to 10,000. So the European population at those early times was very low. Things picked up after the end of the Last Glacial period. There was a rapid population rise at the start of the Linear Pottery Culture (LBK) Neolithic in Germany at around 5,500 BC to 5,000 BC, presumably due to the arrival of the farming revolution. My guess has been that the first I1-M253 person (with all the other SNP mutations) appeared at that time. And the arrival of farming gave the initial population boost to allow I1 people to expand before the R1b people came along. Other scenarios would be possible though. Terry On Mon, Dec 5, 2011 at 10:36 AM, Kenneth Nordtvedt <knordtvedt@bresnan.net>wrote: > Good to have these summary estimates. > > -----Original Message----- > From: Terry > Sent: Sunday, December 04, 2011 4:22 PM > To: genealogy-dna@rootsweb.com > Subject: [DNA] Historical Population Estimates for Europe (was Re: > Domesday) > > For the simulations and other calculations that I have done in the past, I > often used these (very approximate) population estimates for Europe: > > =============================== > Population Estimates for Europe > =============================== > 10,000 BC: 200,000 people. > 7,000 BC: 400,000 people. > 4,000 BC: 2 million people. > 2,000 BC: 5 million people. > 1,000 BC: 10 million people. > 200 BC: 27 million people. > 200 AD: 36 million people. > 500 AD: 27 million people. > 1,000 AD: 38 million people. > 1,500 AD: 80 million people. > 1,800 AD: 180 million people. > 2,000 AD: 750 million people. > =============================== > > > And for population trends in Europe, these are often quoted: > > =============================== > Population Trends in Europe > =============================== > 150 AD - 400 AD: Population Decline. > 400 AD - 1000 AD: Stable at a Low Level. > 1000 AD - 1250 AD: Population Boom. > 1250 AD - 1350 AD: Stable at a High Level (except after Great Famine). > 1350 AD - 1420 AD: Steep Decline (due to Black Death - 1 in 3 died). > 1420 AD - 1470 AD: Stable at a Low Level. > 1470 AD - onward: Slow Expansion (gaining momentum in early 16th Century). > =============================== > > I also use some region specific population estimates, since the population > changes over thousands of years was not uniform across Europe. > > Note all these estimates are fairly crude. But for testing various TMRCA > population history effects, I gained a lot of insight from using such > estimates. They are also useful for understanding computed trees from STR > data. > > I rarely use a constant population growth over time. > > Terry > > >