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    1. [S-I] <1446984346.932552.1328627296163.JavaMail.root@sz0165a.westchester.pa.mail.comcast.net>
    2. Susan Hedeen
    3. Linda, and all, I'm very glad that this subject has come up. Correct, Linda, presently there are no down stream SNP for M222+ The reason being, other than one which may be hasn't been discovered is: The sub-clade went through a bottleneck around mid-first millennium CE Bottlenecks (a term in description of a population kill off) tend to depress diversity among the haplotypes as the current descendants generally are descended from a very small pool of related survivors. This bottleneck was inferred in the Trinity Study and is represented by a bi-modality in haplotypes analysis and graphed as a double hump with-in their publication. William Howard's RCC analysis of the M222 results with-in the R1b1c7 (M222) Haplogroup project at the time of his analysis confirmed the bi-modality; his graphs also reproducing the double hump, but he could not explain or offer a reason as to why this phenomena existed. His analysis suggested that the SNP (M222) arose at least 900--1000 years (or even more) previous to the popular estimates. His estimates were not widely accepted as his method is proprietary and thus his analysis could not be reproduced by the hobbyists and others considering his publication. At that time the bottleneck was not being considered, either, and with the majority of M222 appearing so homogenous because of it, some analysts were considering that the clade was younger than even Trinity's study estimates. Howard may, however, be correct, but with-out further study and reproduction of his work, his conclusions stand neither confirmed nor denied. Dr. Anatole Klyosov, a renowned Russian Scientist (you my view his credentials on the web) now residing in the United States recently performed two important studies: 1 (one) regarding R1b in Ireland using the haplotypes out of Irish Heritage (2 years ago) and secondly (2) a recent analysis of Irish and Scottish lineages of the M222+ O'Dochartaigh and Amuligane (AKA the Doherty variously spelled and the Milligan variously spelled). This analysis confirmed the bottleneck and its approximate timing and pushed the common progenitor of these two genetically related groups back to 0 BC/CE before the bottleneck. The groups shortly thereafter went through their migrations and began to diverge. The study included approximately 31 haplotypes rather evenly divided between these two surname groups in both 37 & 67 marker result samplings. You may find the discussion regarding his findings in the M222 list at Rootsweb. AAK prefers analysis using both 67 & 111 marker haplotypes; however few have extended their results to 111 markers primarily due to FTDNA's ticket price to do so. Had he been able to analyze these groups at 111 markers as well, likely there would have turned up more information. To make it clear: the time of origin of the L21+ DF23" M222+ subclade has not been established. No one regardless of the popular belief that it arose in Ireland knows where or when it mutated. Now that the bottleneck is with in the scope of consideration, there is more credence to the possibility that it may have migrated into Ireland (and the Isles), but from where or by which tribe migration is yet unknown. Ireland was not the only environ that suffered environmentally, either...the Isles general and Europe also suffered during that mid first mil., thus uncovering an approximate origin date or place or with-in which migrating tribe(s) may not be possible; however more testing and research is necessary and it is too soon to count out any of the possibilities. Klyosov's R1b work, however, has suggested some R1b (& clades & sub-clades) time origin estimates and migrations across Europe. Some of his discussions may be found in the DNA Genealogy List at Rootsweb. A warning here, some of the discussions there may be a bit heated among the annalists, so, read for content and ignore the arguments beyond the substantive information offered. It has become clear that extension to 111 marker results has value beyond the paper trails; however, for those concerned only with their paper trails, indeed the value may not be readily apparent when matches at 37 or 67 are revealing a GD (genetic distance) of 3--7 away from others with-in their specific surname groups. With the cost of this extension, it is understandable why some would believe that 37 or 67 marker results under the scenario mentioned immediately above suits the purpose of individual inquiries simply to establish their paper trails which as Linda mentions end at best in the 1600's with anything previous to that a speculation which may be tentatively proved or disproved via DNA with the understanding that DNA will not tell any of us the relationships -- only that the genetic evidence of relatedness. As mentioned previously in this forum, the choice of "to up-grade or not to up-grade" depends upon the individual goals of the test subject or research manager; and to be fair, I once was in the camp that few matches at 37 or 67 justified no up-grades. Having gotten involved in the research, however, I have changed my tune, and I now am actively encouraging those in the L21 sub-clades (M222 being one of those) to SNP test and extend their haplotypes to at least 67 with a goal of further extension to 111 markers when possible. Mike Walsh of L21 haplogroup project in conjunction with the research of the WTY SNP testing have uncovered multiple SNP of L21+ which are successfully subdividing L21, the parent of most of the Irish, R1b's and those L21+ sub-clades in the Isles, general. The work of the L21+ is invaluable. You should also look forward to other research conducted and contributed in various publications by Klyosov. For the novice readers, some of his papers are somewhat technical; however unlike some who publish their work in scientific jargon (which for many of us is like Greek in our understanding of it), his work generally is presented in understandable common English to be digested by any who would choose to read his papers which are numerous. He is motivated and prolific; his work is reproducible and he examples calculations and methods for those conducting analysis to do so. Susan

    02/08/2012 04:34:43