First of all, I would like to share with you the critique of findings as the result of "SOUNDSHAKE '98" in which amateur radio operators or hams provided organized communications in a SIMULATED disaster exercise. In this case it was a severe earthquake in which many water supplys, bridges, power outages, buildings et al collapsing, hospital disasters, fire, police, and emergency services were suddenly caught in a devastating situation. This requires the use of battery, generator, etc. power sources that would not be the usual sources for maintaining communications and dispatching aid to wherever it was needed at the time. This took place Tues. Sept 22, '98 and you probably saw blips of it on TV, or perhaps some newspaper coverage. We have learned from Mt. St. Helens, and other major disasters all over the Nation and the World in fact how important preparation for such events can make a difference pro or con. The evaluation report I listened to on a conclave of the ham participants was this: 1. Speaking too fast when passing messages is a fault that must be considered and kept in mind. This correction must be practiced until it is done in a manner which will provide the greatest efficiency of communications clarity, and especially in an emergency situation where the situation in the real thing is that of pandimonium, fear in life threatening situations, but can be life saving if done with control and care for the greatest efficiency of communication. 2. Message forms which were of an unusual nature or not standardized. It is to be able to copy messages on a form that asks for, or provides the necessary data for the completion of the message. In the real situation, where nerves are tested, certain important data may be inadvertantly omitted. A form for the purpose of gathering all of the important data is necessary for efficiency of conveying the proper amount of information whatever the problem may be. The forms for this kind of information need to be standardized so that less confusion results from unfamiliar data recording. 3. All sources for emergency power, including all connectors, equipment, etc. that are needed at the site or that can be conveyed to the site should be ready and working in as little down time as possible. Instances were cited in the report in which antennas, cables, etc had previously been "installed" at a fire station, but the ham sent to that station was not able to USE the installation because someone had dropped the ball in completing the installation and the system was rendered useless, so the ham had to use his little "rubber ducky" antenna on his equipment to barely communicate. This could be the difference between a life or death situation if the communication is lacking. 4. Lack of activity on the part of some at the public safety bldg. Seattle was noted as a weak link. Seattle is a city that needs all it can get in a disaster waiting to happen. 5. A sheriff's office needs more cooperation than it provided - it wanted to shut down early, and that doesn't happen when the real thing happens. Treating a situation lightly in practice may prove to be valuable in the real sense, taking nothing for granted. 6. Radio interference at various locations is always a problems for radio communications to deal with. This can be noise from machinery, or stations interfering unintentionally with each other when they are located close to each other. Intermod. or intermodulation is one of the technical terms used. Sometimes shielding can help or the use of filters, but oftentime it is something that must be tolerated unless it can be remedied. All in all the simulated situation was very successful and with practice and cooperation these other details can be solved so that when "the big one hits" whether that is an earthquake, storm, explosion, or whatever, the persons who have honed themselves to remain calm as possible under the circumstances, and provide communications in order to save lives, and property as much as possible will have been achieved. Now, this morning I just got the following on my screen. No one, in my estimation can predict an earthquake accurately, tho the prediction of the Mt. St Helens disaster was being forwarned for months before it actually took place. At least one ham or more gave his life while up on that mountain reporting back to base, as I listened to him do so. A National Geographic photographer, I believe, and scientists were involved, reporting their findings. Many were involved in that event. WX or weather events are not that predictable and especially in our Northwest Region where so many factors enter into a prediciton that it is something that meteorologists live with, but continually attempt to refine. So, below I will include what was sent to me this morning. I consider it a Warning more than I do a Predicition, but just like the Earthquake, an erupting mountain, an explosion, and weather it is a fact of life that these events can and will happen. Therefore, the more we can prepare ourselves for such an event the better. Most of us glide along in Life procrastinating and I am probably the prime example but we have here been forwarned and it is up to us to do something about it, or wait til it happens and THEN we do the best we can, which may not be good enough. Carroll in Snohomish. * * * 30 * * * FYI: >> Winter Warning 1998-99 >> >> Bob Kraski, Mayor of Arlington and Chairman of the Snohomish County >> Emergency Management, stated that the coming winter will be the >"WORST >> WINTER IN 40 to 50 YEARS." >> >> This information was clearly reinforced by >meteorologist/climetologist >> Mike McCallister who shared information collected over time relating >> to >> the water temperature of the equatorial Pacific. The summary >> explanation >> is that the warm water "depository" in the Pacific that moderates >the >> winters of the Northwest is gone this year. This will cause the Jet >> Stream to rise sharply up the Asian coast, into the Arctic and >> straight >> down toward Washington. The possibility of error is based on the >fact >> that there has been 16 consecutive months of record breaking warm >> weather and the fact that there is global warming. However, Mr. >> McCallister stated that his prediction of extreme winter is reliable >> in >> the 80-90% range. He reminded us that in 1916-17 and in 1949-50 >there >> was 6-10 feet of snow accumulation. >> >> WHAT WE CAN EXPECT: >> >> October - early December: Early heavy snow with a high potential for >> warming = flooding. >> >> Late December - March: High temperatures in the upper 30's/lows in >the >> upper 20's. Frequent, heavy snow falls that will not melt, but >> accumulate, potentially up to 100". (Snowdrifts, caused by winds - CC.) >> >> Frequent wind storms in the 50-70 mph range. >> >> March - April: Spring warming = flooding. >> >> Potential for prolonged power outages. Prolonged periods (weeks or >> more) >> of below zero temperatures. >> >> The "Arctic express" weather regularly experienced in Whatcom County >> could reach as far as Pierce County. >> >> >> BE PREPARED >> >> As the Emergency Management people say, you cannot focus on your job >> if >> you are worried about your family and property. Before "The Big One" >> arrives, get yourself prepared. There are brochures and assistance >> available to help you. The following information is summarized from >> information handed out at the Snohomish County Emergency Management >> Council meeting. >> >> You may be stranded at home, in your car or at work. BE PREPARED. >> >> AT HOME: >> >> FOOD: Stock up. Even if you are able to get out after a while and >get >> to >> a store, trucks may not have been able to get through and there >could >> be >> empty shelves to greet you. Stock up on easily prepared foods that >do >> not require refrigeration. Things like powdered and canned milk, non >> refrigerated juice, energy bars, food that does not require cooking. >> Staying warm takes energy. Think about what you and yours would need >> to >> be comfortable for the longest time you have been stuck - then >double >> it! >> >> WATER: Pipes can freeze or break. Without power, pumps won't work. >> Water >> mains can break. Know where your shut-off valve is. Run water in a >> sink >> to help prevent freezing pipes. You have a reservoir of water in the >> hot >> water tank. You can fill the tub before things shut down. You can >> start >> now buying a gallon a week and storing it. If you have been >preparing >> for an earthquake, you should have a gallon per person per day >already >> stored. >> >> POWER: Do you have an electric garage door opener? Do you know how >to >> open it if the power goes out? It may be time to find the >instruction >> manual. >> >> Check on replenish supplies: >> Batteries_Flashlights_Large pot for heating water_Sterno__Wind up >> clock_Wood/Pellets_Matches___Manual can opener_Paper plates_Plastic >> utensils___Radio_Candles_Camping equipment ___ >> >> Remember proper ventilation. Fumes can kill. DO NOT USE A BARBECUE >as >> a >> heat source.(I had a very good friend from Everett Toastmaster's Club who went hunting in eastern WA who went to sleep in his station wagon with a BBQ for heat. He never awakened - CO -Carbon Monoxide from the BBQ took his life. How tragic a mistake. CC.) DO NOT LEAVE CANDLES unattended - including while >> sleeping. >> >> When the power goes off, turn off/unplug everything except for one >> light >> to signal you when the power goes back on -or it could ruin your >> electrical equipment. >> >> Close off extra rooms. Maintain a small area for warmth. Keep doors >> and >> curtains closed. Put towels or blankets across the bottoms of doors >to >> keep out drafts. Keep refrigerator and freezer doors closed. A fully >> loaded freezer will maintain for two days without power. >> >> Portable generator should not be hooked directly into your electric >> system unless a transfer switch has been installed by a licensed >> electrician. Without it, a fatal shock could be delivered to a >lineman >> working in your area. >> >> Don't forget to keep prescriptions filled. >> A cell phone works even when the phone lines go down. >> Stock cards, board games, books for entertainment. >> >> IN YOUR CAR: >> Consider the possibility that you may become stuck. Remember the >> stories >> last winter from the Mid-West where people got stranded for several >> days. Check your antifreeze now. Make sure you have chains and know >> how >> to mount them. Consider carrying a bag of sand or kitty litter. >Carry >> a >> small shovel. If your battery is old, NOW is the time to start >> planning >> to buy a new one. >> >> We are in for extended periods of near or below zero winter. If you >> have >> to park outside, consider running a trouble light to leave on under >> the >> hood. The heat from one bulb can keep the engine healthy. >> >> Now is the time to start collecting a winter "kit". The Red Cross >> suggests you carry blankets or sleeping bag; flashlight and extra >> batteries; knife; high calorie, non perishable food; extra clothing; >a >> large empty can with plastic cover, toilet paper and towels; a small >> can >> and water proof matches to melt drinking water; windshield scraper; >> tow >> rope; jumper cables; water; compass; road map. Add a cell phone! >> >> Keep your tank full to avoid water in the fuel line. >> >> Try not to travel alone. At least let people know where you are >going >> and when you expect to get there. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> > _____________________________________________________________________ You don't need to buy Internet access to use free Internet e-mail. Get completely free e-mail from Juno at http://www.juno.com Or call Juno at (800) 654-JUNO [654-5866]