I finally noticed this story was handy. -- jws Forecasters throw cold water on e-mail rumors of wicked winter http://www.seattletimes.com/news/local/html98/nina_100398.html by Diedtra Henderson <dhen-new@seatimes.com> Seattle Times science reporter Posted at 11:40 p.m. PDT; Saturday, October 3, 1998 Chicken Little's not alone. Over the past week, weather officials have fielded anxious phone calls and messages provoked by a widely distributed e-mail that predicted this winter could be the worst in 50 years. The official- sounding but ultimately bogus message warned of storms depositing 100 inches of lingering snow, temperatures dropping below zero and winds whipping up to 70 mph. The inaccurate information was attributed, falsely, to a Snohomish County official and Arlington mayor. Rumors, lies and innuendo, say local weather gurus. "We're calling it e-mail terrorism," said Christopher Hill, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service's Seattle office. "It's amazing how many people someone can reach with such little effort. . . . Maybe the lesson is people should realize e-mails are not peer reviewed." At a recent weather-service forum, National Climate Prediction Center Director Ants Leetmaa said that because of La Nina, this area can expect a few more inches of rain than average this winter, a little more minor flooding, and definitely more snow - perhaps up to 18 inches. Since then, the agency's updated September forecast backs down a step, predicting a weak to moderate La Nina - the cousin of El Nino and a condition in which weather patterns are affected by cooling waters in the equatorial Pacific. The forecast predicted no huge differences between this winter's temperatures and a normal winter, Hill said. The most snow the region received during a La Nina event was the winter of 1950-51, when 27.4 inches dropped at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. The most severe winter on record in Western Washington - a blockbuster in 1949-50 - delivered 60 inches of snow, much less than the 100 inches noted in the e-mail. The University of Washington department of atmospheric sciences was getting so many worried calls that it went on the counteroffensive with a news release yesterday. "I think it's important for people to understand that we're not necessarily expecting a severe winter. It probably will be colder than last winter, which was rather benign," Cliff Mass, a UW atmospheric- sciences professor, states in the release. "People are likely to notice a change, but it's not going to be the end of the world." There's some disagreement where the bum information began. But once unleashed, the e-mail made the rounds through Boeing, Microsoft, local school districts and even traveled as far as Australia. "We've received calls from Yakima about it. Maybe they're thinking they're going to have waterfront property when we freeze solid and break off the coast," joked Ed Bacco, a program specialist in the Snohomish County Department of Emergency Management. "It's a shame, because people need to be prepared. It has the reverse effect when they find out this isn't true, and they're wasting their time." Arlington Mayor Bob Kraski, whom the e-mail purportedly quoted, said no other issue has generated this amount of attention. "You can talk about increasing taxes, you can talk about rules or changes or annexation. I've never had the response we've had out of this," Kraski said. Hill said the National Weather Service will again tighten its winter forecast next month, when buoys floating in the tropical Pacific spit back more information on the cooling waters that empower La Nina events. "Maybe we should put it out on e-mail," he said. Diedtra Henderson's phone message number is 206-464-8259. Her e-mail address is: dhenderson@seattletimes.com E-mail Comments to Editor : Comments@seatimes.com The Seattle Times home page http://www.seattletimes.com/ Seattle Times: Table of Content http://www.seattletimes.com/news/ The Seattle Times: Search Archive http://www.seattletimes.com/extra/search.html The Seattle Times: Browse by date http://www.seattletimes.com/todaysnews/browse.html Permission requests and information http://www/seatimes.com/general/info.html Copyright (c) 1998 The Seattle Times Company http://www.seattletimes.com/news/general/copyright.html