Posted by: Cliff Posey Date: August 02, 2000 at 10:55:52 In Reply to: Re: Poschet Vaux Cambrai 1500 by Shirley of 1267 Shirley, Like you, I have read all the stuff out there on the Posey/Poschet connection. And frankly, I don't care one way or the other (England or France) but fine reading all the post somewhat amusing. True, there is no solid evidence point to a connection but also there is no solid evidence pointing against one (keyword: solid). Now lets have some fun. If you take all the information out there and apply pure mathematics to it (probability theory) you (or I should say I) come up with a 7.75 out of 10 probability favoring a connection. Again I asure you I'm completely unbias (just between you and me that's untrue I would really prefer the English) and like the random occurrence of a single event this is only a probability based on information available (to me) with applied variables (by me). We could call it the Posey Conjecture. Now with that said, as stated by someone earlier I would also start in England. Of course, you could develop a DNA table log on living members of both sides (that is the true lines on the Posey side and Poschet side). Followups: Re: Poschet Vaux Cambrai 1500 Bonnie Jay 8/02/00 Re: Poschet Vaux Cambrai 1500 Posted by: Bonnie Jay Date: August 02, 2000 at 15:43:41 In Reply to: Re: Poschet Vaux Cambrai 1500 by Cliff Posey of 1267 Cliff, In the interest of taking good care of Posey history and certainly not to offend you in any way, I have to make some comments and ask some questions if you will. First, I don't know how long you've been a genealogist, but after over 30 years of serious research, I can tell you that mathematics has absolutely nothing to do with genealogical research. Laws of probability and averages have no relation to research, at least if one is interested in discovering facts and if one approaches research as an acdemic discipline. Games of chance are great in Las Vegas but there's no room for such in genealogy. Second, genealogical facts are not established on what has not been proved untrue. That's an odd sounding sentence, but so is your statement that such is true. Genealogical facts are established solely on what is proved as TRUE. Until you can prove the past, there is NO past! If your approach to genealogy were valid, all of us Posey descendants could claim to be descendants of a previously unknown illegitimate children of Cleopatra and Julius Caeser -- based solely on the fact that there is no proof that it isn't true. Is this the quality of history we want to build for our families? Not hardly. Your claim a 7.75 chance out of 10 there is a connection of the two families. Might I call your bluff<g> and ask for your genealogical evidence? Can you tell me of your specific research results that have led to your claim? Can you cite sources? I don't mean to hurt your feelings or embarass you and that certainly isn't my intention here, but since this is a forum, challenge and debate are natural occurences. Personally, I applaud the people who actually do the research and don't "GUESS" about what is true. I applaud those who dare to ask questions and raise doubts instead of believing anything and everything they read on the Internet. And I think all of this is wonderful fun so please don't play put down games with the people who are actually doing the work on your family history -- your letter came across that way. This is tons of fun! You see, this is the thrill of the search! If we already knew the answers, we wouldn't be going through this wonderful search of the past (a priceless learning experience!). And without challenge and debate, a scholarly community collapses or goes nowhere -- scholarship is the key element that has been sorely lacking in Posey history for far too long. I'll be waiting with baited breath for you to share with us your research results that you use as the basis for your knowledge of the Posey family and your historical claims. Thanks. Bonnie Jay