Sorenson Mol. Gen. Fnd. gives an estimate of "Most likely num. generations separating you from your paternal MRCA" (most recent common ancestor). Where the match is 22/24 (roughly equivalent to our 34/37), that estimate is 20 generations. That "feels" about right in this case, so I would bet that Bob and Antony have a common male ancestor somewhere between 15 and 25 generations ago. But I suspect that SMGF's estimate results from strictly mathematical calculations. If we factor in the common surname and geographical location, it sure seems possible that Bob and Antony's common male ancestor was someone not too many generations removed from Richard Pace's departure for the Americas (Richard's father, grandfather, g-grandfather, etc). Joe ----Original Message Follows---- From: "Roy Johnson" <royj@webster.edu> To: PACE-L@rootsweb.com Subject: [PACE-L] Common ancestry Antony Pace Date: Wed, 22 Feb 2006 19:19:25 -0600 >From Roy Johnson, DNA coordinator: The Group Administrator Page offers a tool for calculating the probable distance to a common ancestor between any two participants. I ran the test for Antony Pace (8179) and his two 34/37 matches with kits 6366 and 8179. It should be emphasized that these estimates are highly tentative and are constantly being refined. They are based on comparison with other DNA results where the common ancestor is known and there is a 34/37 match. We know there was no common ancestor prior to 8 generations, which puts us back to the late 1600s. 10-12 generations puts us back to the time of Richard of Jamestown. So these estimates indicate a good likelihood of a common ancestor close to the time of Richard of Jamestown. I know Bob won't mind if I reveal this-I think it's kind of neat that one of these matches is with past Pace Society president Bob Pace. Keep in mind that "within" means that number of generations or less. The odds of a common ancestor within... 8 generations is 51.17% 10 generations is 67.53% 12 generations is 79.64% 14 generations is 87.82% 16 generations is 92.98% 18 generations is 96.08% 20 generations is 97.86% 22 generations is 98.86%