My friends - I have spent a fair amount of time today with my pencil and calculator, looking at the numbers associated with the possibility of holding a genealogical conference in the JP region in the summer of this year. The sole purpose of this message is to give you a report on the findings. Those of you who are not interested in this particular subject can use your "Delete" buttons now, and avoid reading the rest of this rather lengthy report. Yesterday was the nominal cutoff date for those interested to send replies. We were hoping to have at least 100 positive responses so that consideration of whether to form a planning committee could proceed. As of this moment, we have had a total of 104 positive responses. From this 104 number, there were five withdrawals, leaving the number at 99. From that point, it was necessary to review the content of each response, in order to determine what restrictions, if any, possible attendees mentioned in their positive response, regarding their ability to attend. I think it goes without saying that most of us do not know where we may be, or what we may be doing, two weeks from now, much less seven months away. Nevertheless, all we can go on at this point is the reasonable beliefs which folks have about their ability to attend, and other events which might well prevent them from being able to attend. I separated the responses into several categories, which ranged from "Almost Certain" to attend, down to "Unlikely to Be Able To Attend, but would like to do so", with several categories in between. I counted the numbers of the two top categories("Almost Certain" and "Reasonably Sure")and totaled those to reach what is probably a good foundation count total for attendance. This number came to 67. Included in this number are any additional people, such as spouses, or others who would come with another attendee(s), who were mentioned in the responses. The remainder of the responses fell into the last two categories("Possible Attendance, but Major Conflicting Possibilities", and then the last category mentioned above). This number comprised the remaining 32 who responded. Into these categories went responses which indicated that there were family events already scheduled, or which might likely occur and could easily conflict with the time of the conference in late July, as well as those which indicated problems with the possible registration fee, the location, the ability to attend only if it is held on certain dates in July, ability to reach the conference location by air, and other potential problems which could easily affect the respondent's ability to be present. And, of course, there will always be situations which will arise in the weeks just before the conference, which would prevent people from being able to attend. But, as can be seen, the 67 number falls considerably short of the firm number needed to proceed. As a comparison, we started planning for the 2000 event a year in advance, in the Fall of 1999, rather than seven months out, as is the case with the current situation. When I sent out the request for responses of interest to the idea back then, I had, by the time three weeks had passed, received over 160 interested replies. Eventually, this escalated to 174. By the time of the actual conference, we had lost 33, which gave us an actual number of 143 paid attendees. In the case of the 2000 event, the only announcement arena used was the KYJacksonPurchase-L mail list. For the possible 2006 conference, I sent announcements to some 17 county lists, and 4 regional lists, in KY, TN and IL - far more announcement coverage than we had in 2000, but the interested numbers were far lower this time than in 2000. I suspect that inflation, especially associated with the price of gasoline and other travel cost increases, are responsible for much of the lower level of response. Many additional people would probably *like* to attend, but costs are prohibitive. This conference, if held, would incur costs between $5500 and $6500. One of the most often stated requests in the feedback forms we received from the 2000 conference was that we bring in speakers who could give a more broad based view of the JP region, relative to the rest of KY, IL and TN. There was much interest in having nationally known speakers give presentations. If we were to obtain two speakers of national genealogical prominence, the cost for each would very likely be in the $1000 neighborhood, after the speaking fee(usually $400-$500), the travel expenses, meals and lodging are totalled up, which accounts for at least $2000, plus several hundred dollars more for an historical/genealogical program presented after the banquet. We could also have speakers such as Kandi Adkinson from the KY Land Office, which would incur lesser costs that would be associated just with travel and lodging(without speaking fee), but which would be in the $200 range, approximately. When we then add up the hotel meeting room costs, the cost of the banquet, and the dozens of other expenses associated with such an undertaking, we reach into the cost range indicated above. Any speakers at the national level require written speaking contracts, negotiated some months in advance, which would cause us to have to start collecting registration fees very quickly, and with less likelihood of being able to refund a part or all of it, especially at a point 30 days out from the actual date of the conference if an individual found that he/she could not attend, in order to be sure to have the funds to meet the contractual obligations. Given all of the above, it is my view that it will not be possible for us to proceed with planning at this time for a conference in 2006. If we had a good buffer number between those who indicated that they were "almost certain" to be able to attend, and those who expressed considerable or definitive doubt about their ability to attend, we could proceed, as was the case in 1999/2000. It is always better, I think, to err on the side of caution in these things, rather than taking chances with the potential funding and having a shortfall. I know that this is very disappointing news, but we gave it a good try, and perhaps we can make the attempt again to hold a conference in 2007. Many thanks to all of those who expressed an interest in attending, and to those among them who so generously offered to do volunteer work, should the conference have become a reality. -B ====================================================================