Unfortunately, that has happened to me too when I came across incontrovertible proof that I have African-American blood running through my veins. Several relatives refuse to acknowledge that I'm blood-related to them because of my racial identity and will no longer communicate with me. Pat McCoy, M.S. Addiction Psychology Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! =========================================== ________________________________ From: Kathy Cochran <kathys_old_house@goldrush.com> To: hesse@rootsweb.com Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 2:54:38 PM Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions This is QUITE a hot topic, it is seeming. I contacted a long-lost cousin with all the information about our relatives from Alzey, (I THOUGHT she would be THRILLED!) and she responded back with, "Well, actually is it looking like we are from Alsace-Lorraine. You shouldn't be so dismissive and disrespectful of family stories and traditions." I was FLOORED! I emailed her back, but I am sure that I will NEVER hear from her again! Oh well! Kathy Cochran San Andreas, CA From: hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com [mailto:hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com] On Behalf Of Pat McCoy Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:27 AM To: hesse@rootsweb.com Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions AMEN to THAT! Learned to search for documentation before I would accept ANY relative's word about anything!!! It got to be FUN when they would attempt to INSIST that such-and-such was an ABSOLUTE FACT and I would produce black-and-white legal documentation that NEGATED EVERYTHING they tried to insist on! (This was in connection to the truth about my own father!) That finally stopped all the "mind games" when they realized I wasn't buying the bull! Pat McCoy, M.S. Addiction Psychology Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! ======================================== ________________________________ From: Raymond F. Gunther <raygun33@optonline.net> To: hesse@rootsweb.com Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 2:06:01 PM Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Do Not Trust Family Oral History !!!!!!!!!!!!!! ----- Original Message ----- From: "Charles Hofacker" <chofack@gmail.com> To: <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:12 AM Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > Hi all -- > > I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as > tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the > meantime you might help someone else. > > While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not > investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical > stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply > statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. > > In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great > grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from > Salmunster, > a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, > but > I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a > mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they > related? > > Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing > these sorts of questions? > > Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions > unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the > probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is "small" > and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any > tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to > approach the problem of doing such calculations. > > Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to > email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the > question. > __________________________________________________________________ > Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | > Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> > | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | > Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> > <http://twitter.com/chofack> > > > > On Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 09:29, Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> wrote: > >> >From my perspective, I don't think it will hurt to >> explore this possible clue to see if it pans out for >> you. If it turns out that the person is not related, >> you could still share it with someone else who >> may be looking for it. >> >> Pat McCoy, M.S. >> >> Addiction Psychology >> >> Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! >> ================================================== >> >> >> ________________________________ >> From: "user917826@aol.com" <user917826@aol.com> >> To: hesse@rootsweb.com >> Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 8:17:54 AM >> Subject: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions >> >> >> >> >> Hi everyone, >> >> I often jump to conclusions but I would like someone to weigh in on this >> set of >> events. My 3 ggrandfather, Johann George Heck, b. 13 Sept. 1811 in >> Gross-Karben, left his home town and married a woman from >> Kircheimbolanden, >> Bayern in 1840. Johann Georg was the son of Johann Heinrich Heck also of >> Karben. Following the trail back, our earliest ancestor, Hermann Heck, >> b. >> circa 1703 was not from Karben but came there by 1750, working as a >> shepherd. >> >> Going through my notebooks for possible Heck connections, I revisited one >> Heinrich Heck b. 1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, Oberhessen. Mapquesting >> the >> town, I have found that it appears to be about 7 minutes from >> Kirscheimbolanden >> and about an hour from Gross-Karben. >> >> Would it be likely that there might be a family connection here? My 3 >> great >> grandfather was a "master tailor" from Karben. He raised his children in >> Kirscheimbolanden and left for the US circa 1850 when he was widowed. >> >> Thanks, >> >> Bev W >> >> >> >> >> >> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com >> with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the >> body >> of >> the message >> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes >> in the subject and the body of the message >> > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in the subject and the body of the message ------------------------------- To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message ------------------------------- To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message _____ No virus found in this message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 10.0.1204 / Virus Database: 1498/3506 - Release Date: 03/14/11 ------------------------------- To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message