Hi Charles, I'm not a statistician but have had some experience with it because of my work, I would appreciate a copy of your spreadsheet. (ajungk at gmail dot com). I have been brooding about how to approach these cases, I think that maybe a 'circumstantial evidence' approach could be worthwhile, specially as in one of my lines, where the archives were destroyed (WWII) and there is no chance of verifying anything. Alexis 2011/3/14 Charles Hofacker <chofack@gmail.com> > Hi all -- > > I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as > tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the > meantime you might help someone else. > > While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not > investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical > stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply > statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. > > In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great > grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from > Salmunster, > a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, > but > I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a > mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they > related? > > Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing > these sorts of questions? > > Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions > unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the > probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is "small" > and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any > tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to > approach the problem of doing such calculations. > > Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to > email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the > question. > __________________________________________________________________ > Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | > Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> > | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | > Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> > <http://twitter.com/chofack> > > > > On Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 09:29, Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> wrote: > > > >From my perspective, I don't think it will hurt to > > explore this possible clue to see if it pans out for > > you. If it turns out that the person is not related, > > you could still share it with someone else who > > may be looking for it. > > > > Pat McCoy, M.S. > > > > Addiction Psychology > > > > Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! > > ================================================== > > > > > > ________________________________ > > From: "user917826@aol.com" <user917826@aol.com> > > To: hesse@rootsweb.com > > Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 8:17:54 AM > > Subject: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > > > > > > > > > > Hi everyone, > > > > I often jump to conclusions but I would like someone to weigh in on this > > set of > > events. My 3 ggrandfather, Johann George Heck, b. 13 Sept. 1811 in > > Gross-Karben, left his home town and married a woman from > Kircheimbolanden, > > Bayern in 1840. Johann Georg was the son of Johann Heinrich Heck also of > > Karben. Following the trail back, our earliest ancestor, Hermann Heck, > b. > > circa 1703 was not from Karben but came there by 1750, working as a > > shepherd. > > > > Going through my notebooks for possible Heck connections, I revisited one > > Heinrich Heck b. 1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, Oberhessen. Mapquesting > > the > > town, I have found that it appears to be about 7 minutes from > > Kirscheimbolanden > > and about an hour from Gross-Karben. > > > > Would it be likely that there might be a family connection here? My 3 > > great > > grandfather was a "master tailor" from Karben. He raised his children in > > Kirscheimbolanden and left for the US circa 1850 when he was widowed. > > > > Thanks, > > > > Bev W > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------- > > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com > > with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the > body > > of > > the message > > > > ------------------------------- > > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the > quotes > > in the subject and the body of the message > > > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in the subject and the body of the message >