>From my perspective, I don't think it will hurt to explore this possible clue to see if it pans out for you. If it turns out that the person is not related, you could still share it with someone else who may be looking for it. Pat McCoy, M.S. Addiction Psychology Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! ================================================== ________________________________ From: "user917826@aol.com" <user917826@aol.com> To: hesse@rootsweb.com Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 8:17:54 AM Subject: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Hi everyone, I often jump to conclusions but I would like someone to weigh in on this set of events. My 3 ggrandfather, Johann George Heck, b. 13 Sept. 1811 in Gross-Karben, left his home town and married a woman from Kircheimbolanden, Bayern in 1840. Johann Georg was the son of Johann Heinrich Heck also of Karben. Following the trail back, our earliest ancestor, Hermann Heck, b. circa 1703 was not from Karben but came there by 1750, working as a shepherd. Going through my notebooks for possible Heck connections, I revisited one Heinrich Heck b. 1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, Oberhessen. Mapquesting the town, I have found that it appears to be about 7 minutes from Kirscheimbolanden and about an hour from Gross-Karben. Would it be likely that there might be a family connection here? My 3 great grandfather was a "master tailor" from Karben. He raised his children in Kirscheimbolanden and left for the US circa 1850 when he was widowed. Thanks, Bev W ------------------------------- To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message
Hi all -- I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the meantime you might help someone else. While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from Salmunster, a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, but I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they related? Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing these sorts of questions? Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is "small" and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to approach the problem of doing such calculations. Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the question. __________________________________________________________________ Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> <http://twitter.com/chofack> On Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 09:29, Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> wrote: > >From my perspective, I don't think it will hurt to > explore this possible clue to see if it pans out for > you. If it turns out that the person is not related, > you could still share it with someone else who > may be looking for it. > > Pat McCoy, M.S. > > Addiction Psychology > > Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! > ================================================== > > > ________________________________ > From: "user917826@aol.com" <user917826@aol.com> > To: hesse@rootsweb.com > Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 8:17:54 AM > Subject: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > > > > > Hi everyone, > > I often jump to conclusions but I would like someone to weigh in on this > set of > events. My 3 ggrandfather, Johann George Heck, b. 13 Sept. 1811 in > Gross-Karben, left his home town and married a woman from Kircheimbolanden, > Bayern in 1840. Johann Georg was the son of Johann Heinrich Heck also of > Karben. Following the trail back, our earliest ancestor, Hermann Heck, b. > circa 1703 was not from Karben but came there by 1750, working as a > shepherd. > > Going through my notebooks for possible Heck connections, I revisited one > Heinrich Heck b. 1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, Oberhessen. Mapquesting > the > town, I have found that it appears to be about 7 minutes from > Kirscheimbolanden > and about an hour from Gross-Karben. > > Would it be likely that there might be a family connection here? My 3 > great > grandfather was a "master tailor" from Karben. He raised his children in > Kirscheimbolanden and left for the US circa 1850 when he was widowed. > > Thanks, > > Bev W > > > > > > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com > with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body > of > the message > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in the subject and the body of the message >
Do you ever wonder why they settled in a particular spot, aside from the obvious areas like New York? Perhaps Killian went to this area because of Francis or vice-versa. I've said it before, but newspapers are amazing at linking and identifying relation. And try to pick up birth records for everyone in the old country with your surname, you may find Francis, as a brother or cousin. As far as statistics, I can't say, Math was my worst subject. I don't really care what the stats might be, I'm more about finding the actual connections. Susan Sent from my iPhone On Mar 14, 2011, at 8:12 AM, Charles Hofacker <chofack@gmail.com> wrote: > > > In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great > grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from Salmunster, > a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, but > I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a > mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they > related? > >
Charles Google the subject of genealogy mathmatics, or similar terms. while doing searches of my own suing Google, I remember that subject being mentioned a number of times. Jerry Dittman Boonsboro, MD ----- Original Message ----- From: "Charles Hofacker" <chofack@gmail.com> To: <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:12 AM Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > Hi all -- > > I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as > tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the > meantime you might help someone else. > > While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not > investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical > stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply > statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. > > In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great > grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from > Salmunster, > a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, > but > I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a > mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they > related? > > Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing > these sorts of questions? > > Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions > unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the > probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is > "small" > and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any > tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to > approach the problem of doing such calculations. > > Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to > email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the > question. > __________________________________________________________________ > Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | > Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> > | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | > Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> > <http://twitter.com/chofack> > > > > On Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 09:29, Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> wrote: > >> >From my perspective, I don't think it will hurt to >> explore this possible clue to see if it pans out for >> you. If it turns out that the person is not related, >> you could still share it with someone else who >> may be looking for it. >> >> Pat McCoy, M.S. >> >> Addiction Psychology >> >> Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! >> ================================================== >> >> >> ________________________________ >> From: "user917826@aol.com" <user917826@aol.com> >> To: hesse@rootsweb.com >> Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 8:17:54 AM >> Subject: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions >> >> >> >> >> Hi everyone, >> >> I often jump to conclusions but I would like someone to weigh in on this >> set of >> events. My 3 ggrandfather, Johann George Heck, b. 13 Sept. 1811 in >> Gross-Karben, left his home town and married a woman from >> Kircheimbolanden, >> Bayern in 1840. Johann Georg was the son of Johann Heinrich Heck also >> of >> Karben. Following the trail back, our earliest ancestor, Hermann Heck, >> b. >> circa 1703 was not from Karben but came there by 1750, working as a >> shepherd. >> >> Going through my notebooks for possible Heck connections, I revisited >> one >> Heinrich Heck b. 1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, Oberhessen. >> Mapquesting >> the >> town, I have found that it appears to be about 7 minutes from >> Kirscheimbolanden >> and about an hour from Gross-Karben. >> >> Would it be likely that there might be a family connection here? My 3 >> great >> grandfather was a "master tailor" from Karben. He raised his children >> in >> Kirscheimbolanden and left for the US circa 1850 when he was widowed. >> >> Thanks, >> >> Bev W >> >> >> >> >> >> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com >> with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the >> body >> of >> the message >> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the >> quotes >> in the subject and the body of the message >> > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in the subject and the body of the message