Pat... That is just very crazy and very sad!!! Bev W -----Original Message----- From: Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> To: hesse <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Mon, Mar 14, 2011 3:06 pm Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Unfortunately, that has happened to me too hen I came across incontrovertible roof that I have African-American lood running through my veins. everal relatives refuse to acknowledge hat I'm blood-related to them because f my racial identity and will no longer ommunicate with me. Pat McCoy, M.S. Addiction Psychology Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! ========================================== _______________________________ rom: Kathy Cochran <kathys_old_house@goldrush.com> o: hesse@rootsweb.com ent: Mon, March 14, 2011 2:54:38 PM ubject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions This is QUITE a hot topic, it is seeming. I contacted a long-lost cousin ith all the information about our relatives from Alzey, (I THOUGHT she ould be THRILLED!) and she responded back with, "Well, actually is it ooking like we are from Alsace-Lorraine. You shouldn't be so dismissive nd disrespectful of family stories and traditions." I was FLOORED! I mailed her back, but I am sure that I will NEVER hear from her again! Oh ell! Kathy Cochran San Andreas, CA From: hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com [mailto:hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com] On ehalf Of Pat McCoy ent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:27 AM o: hesse@rootsweb.com ubject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions AMEN to THAT! Learned to search for documentation efore I would accept ANY relative's ord about anything!!! It got to be UN when they would attempt to NSIST that such-and-such was an BSOLUTE FACT and I would roduce black-and-white legal ocumentation that NEGATED VERYTHING they tried to nsist on! (This was in connection o the truth about my own father!) hat finally stopped all the mind games" when they realized wasn't buying the bull! Pat McCoy, M.S. Addiction Psychology Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! ======================================= _______________________________ rom: Raymond F. Gunther <raygun33@optonline.net> o: hesse@rootsweb.com ent: Mon, March 14, 2011 2:06:01 PM ubject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Do Not Trust Family Oral History !!!!!!!!!!!!!! ---- Original Message ----- rom: "Charles Hofacker" <chofack@gmail.com> o: <hesse@rootsweb.com> ent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:12 AM ubject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Hi all -- I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the meantime you might help someone else. While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from Salmunster, a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, but I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they related? Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing these sorts of questions? Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is "small" and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to approach the problem of doing such calculations. Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the question. __________________________________________________________________ Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> <http://twitter.com/chofack> On Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 09:29, Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> wrote: > >From my perspective, I don't think it will hurt to > explore this possible clue to see if it pans out for > you. If it turns out that the person is not related, > you could still share it with someone else who > may be looking for it. > > Pat McCoy, M.S. > > Addiction Psychology > > Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! > ================================================== > > > ________________________________ > From: "user917826@aol.com" <user917826@aol.com> > To: hesse@rootsweb.com > Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 8:17:54 AM > Subject: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > > > > > Hi everyone, > > I often jump to conclusions but I would like someone to weigh in on this > set of > events. My 3 ggrandfather, Johann George Heck, b. 13 Sept. 1811 in > Gross-Karben, left his home town and married a woman from > Kircheimbolanden, > Bayern in 1840. Johann Georg was the son of Johann Heinrich Heck also of > Karben. Following the trail back, our earliest ancestor, Hermann Heck, > b. > circa 1703 was not from Karben but came there by 1750, working as a > shepherd. > > Going through my notebooks for possible Heck connections, I revisited one > Heinrich Heck b. 1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, Oberhessen. Mapquesting > the > town, I have found that it appears to be about 7 minutes from > Kirscheimbolanden > and about an hour from Gross-Karben. > > Would it be likely that there might be a family connection here? My 3 > great > grandfather was a "master tailor" from Karben. He raised his children in > Kirscheimbolanden and left for the US circa 1850 when he was widowed. > > Thanks, > > Bev W > > > > > > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com > with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the > body > of > the message > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in the subject and the body of the message > ------------------------------- To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message ------------------------------ o unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to ESSE-request@rootsweb.com ith the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body f he message ------------------------------- o unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to ESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in he subject and the body of the message _____ No virus found in this message. hecked by AVG - www.avg.com ersion: 10.0.1204 / Virus Database: 1498/3506 - Release Date: 03/14/11 ------------------------------ o unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of he message ------------------------------ o unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com ith the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of he message