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    1. Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions
    2. Kathy Cochran
    3. I completely second that about not trusting family history! For some reason my grandmother helped to perpetuate a "fairy story" that our family (Adam & Sophia Born) was from Alsace-Lorraine, where I looked and looked and looked in vain. I FINALLY found them in Alzey, Hessen, Darmstadt, (thanks to Alexis Jungk, on this list!) . There was never any acknowledgment that we were German at all! Now I know why I'm so stubborn (smile)! And, from what I have gathered Alzey was NEVER within the boundaries of Alsace-Lorraine, even though the boundaries of that area were ever changing due to the wars. I only wish I knew why this was so! (the fairy story) Kathy Cochran San Andreas, CA From: hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com [mailto:hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com] On Behalf Of Raymond F. Gunther Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:06 AM To: hesse@rootsweb.com Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Do Not Trust Family Oral History !!!!!!!!!!!!!! ----- Original Message ----- From: "Charles Hofacker" <chofack@gmail.com> To: <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:12 AM Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > Hi all -- > > I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as > tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the > meantime you might help someone else. > > While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not > investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical > stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply > statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. > > In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great > grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from > Salmunster, > a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, > but > I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a > mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they > related? > > Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing > these sorts of questions? > > Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions > unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the > probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is "small" > and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any > tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to > approach the problem of doing such calculations. > > Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to > email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the > question. > __________________________________________________________________ > Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | > Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> > | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | > Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> > <http://twitter.com/chofack> > > > > On Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 09:29, Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> wrote: > >> >From my perspective, I don't think it will hurt to >> explore this possible clue to see if it pans out for >> you. If it turns out that the person is not related, >> you could still share it with someone else who >> may be looking for it. >> >> Pat McCoy, M.S. >> >> Addiction Psychology >> >> Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! >> ================================================== >> >> >> ________________________________ >> From: "user917826@aol.com" <user917826@aol.com> >> To: hesse@rootsweb.com >> Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 8:17:54 AM >> Subject: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions >> >> >> >> >> Hi everyone, >> >> I often jump to conclusions but I would like someone to weigh in on this >> set of >> events. My 3 ggrandfather, Johann George Heck, b. 13 Sept. 1811 in >> Gross-Karben, left his home town and married a woman from >> Kircheimbolanden, >> Bayern in 1840. Johann Georg was the son of Johann Heinrich Heck also of >> Karben. Following the trail back, our earliest ancestor, Hermann Heck, >> b. >> circa 1703 was not from Karben but came there by 1750, working as a >> shepherd. >> >> Going through my notebooks for possible Heck connections, I revisited one >> Heinrich Heck b. 1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, Oberhessen. Mapquesting >> the >> town, I have found that it appears to be about 7 minutes from >> Kirscheimbolanden >> and about an hour from Gross-Karben. >> >> Would it be likely that there might be a family connection here? My 3 >> great >> grandfather was a "master tailor" from Karben. He raised his children in >> Kirscheimbolanden and left for the US circa 1850 when he was widowed. >> >> Thanks, >> >> Bev W >> >> >> >> >> >> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com >> with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the >> body >> of >> the message >> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes >> in the subject and the body of the message >> > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in the subject and the body of the message ------------------------------- To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message _____ No virus found in this message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 10.0.1204 / Virus Database: 1498/3506 - Release Date: 03/14/11

    03/14/2011 05:32:04
    1. Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions
    2. Lenise Cook
    3. Yes - you can imagine the consternation I caused in our family when the gggreat grandmother who supposedly was the daughter of someone in the Danish royalty but his family had made him annul the marriage because her mother was a commoner (or she was a princess herself and had to flee to America to marry the commoner she loved - depending on the version you heard) turned out to be the illegitimate daughter of a house maid and a shopkeeper. She was raised by her stepgrandparents in another parish and this fairy story I'm sure was concocted to cover up her illegitimacy and explain to her half-sibings who didn't know she existed until she was in her 20s, why she wasn't raised by her mother and stepfather, and then was embellished as generations and years went by. But my finding the birth records and census records in Denmark dashed the hopes of several who had dreams of being "great Danes." :-) Lenise On 3/14/2011 11:32 AM, Kathy Cochran wrote: > I completely second that about not trusting family history! For some reason > my grandmother helped to perpetuate a "fairy story" that our family (Adam& > Sophia Born) was from Alsace-Lorraine, where I looked and looked and looked > in vain. I FINALLY found them in Alzey, Hessen, Darmstadt, (thanks to > Alexis Jungk, on this list!) . There was never any acknowledgment that we > were German at all! Now I know why I'm so stubborn (smile)! And, from what > I have gathered Alzey was NEVER within the boundaries of Alsace-Lorraine, > even though the boundaries of that area were ever changing due to the wars. > > > > > I only wish I knew why this was so! (the fairy story) > > > > Kathy Cochran >

    03/14/2011 05:45:26
    1. Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions
    2. Pat McCoy
    3. Just my perception (based on what I heard my German-descended relatives speak about): If the fairy story was being told during the period(s) in our history where anti-German sentiment was extremely high, that story might have probably been told out of fear of being attacked for "being German" and self-preservation. Just my half-cent's worth of opinion, (FWIW). Pat McCoy, M.S. Addiction Psychology Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! ================================================= ________________________________ From: Kathy Cochran <kathys_old_house@goldrush.com> To: hesse@rootsweb.com Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 2:32:04 PM Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions I completely second that about not trusting family history! For some reason my grandmother helped to perpetuate a "fairy story" that our family (Adam & Sophia Born) was from Alsace-Lorraine, where I looked and looked and looked in vain. I FINALLY found them in Alzey, Hessen, Darmstadt, (thanks to Alexis Jungk, on this list!) . There was never any acknowledgment that we were German at all! Now I know why I'm so stubborn (smile)! And, from what I have gathered Alzey was NEVER within the boundaries of Alsace-Lorraine, even though the boundaries of that area were ever changing due to the wars. I only wish I knew why this was so! (the fairy story) Kathy Cochran San Andreas, CA From: hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com [mailto:hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com] On Behalf Of Raymond F. Gunther Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:06 AM To: hesse@rootsweb.com Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Do Not Trust Family Oral History !!!!!!!!!!!!!! ----- Original Message ----- From: "Charles Hofacker" <chofack@gmail.com> To: <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:12 AM Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > Hi all -- > > I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as > tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the > meantime you might help someone else. > > While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not > investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical > stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply > statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. > > In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great > grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from > Salmunster, > a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, > but > I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a > mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they > related? > > Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing > these sorts of questions? > > Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions > unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the > probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is "small" > and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any > tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to > approach the problem of doing such calculations. > > Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to > email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the > question. > __________________________________________________________________ > Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | > Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> > | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | > Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> > <http://twitter.com/chofack> > > > > On Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 09:29, Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> wrote: > >> >From my perspective, I don't think it will hurt to >> explore this possible clue to see if it pans out for >> you. If it turns out that the person is not related, >> you could still share it with someone else who >> may be looking for it. >> >> Pat McCoy, M.S. >> >> Addiction Psychology >> >> Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! >> ================================================== >> >> >> ________________________________ >> From: "user917826@aol.com" <user917826@aol.com> >> To: hesse@rootsweb.com >> Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 8:17:54 AM >> Subject: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions >> >> >> >> >> Hi everyone, >> >> I often jump to conclusions but I would like someone to weigh in on this >> set of >> events. My 3 ggrandfather, Johann George Heck, b. 13 Sept. 1811 in >> Gross-Karben, left his home town and married a woman from >> Kircheimbolanden, >> Bayern in 1840. Johann Georg was the son of Johann Heinrich Heck also of >> Karben. Following the trail back, our earliest ancestor, Hermann Heck, >> b. >> circa 1703 was not from Karben but came there by 1750, working as a >> shepherd. >> >> Going through my notebooks for possible Heck connections, I revisited one >> Heinrich Heck b. 1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, Oberhessen. Mapquesting >> the >> town, I have found that it appears to be about 7 minutes from >> Kirscheimbolanden >> and about an hour from Gross-Karben. >> >> Would it be likely that there might be a family connection here? My 3 >> great >> grandfather was a "master tailor" from Karben. He raised his children in >> Kirscheimbolanden and left for the US circa 1850 when he was widowed. >> >> Thanks, >> >> Bev W >> >> >> >> >> >> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com >> with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the >> body >> of >> the message >> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes >> in the subject and the body of the message >> > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in the subject and the body of the message ------------------------------- To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message _____ No virus found in this message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 10.0.1204 / Virus Database: 1498/3506 - Release Date: 03/14/11 ------------------------------- To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message

    03/14/2011 05:45:34
    1. Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions
    2. Helen
    3. I still have to find the port of departure for my g-g-grandfather so I can look for the tree where he buried the treasure he made off with from the Royal Treasury (where he was a guard) during the 1848 revolution. Even recent info got butchered in my family. My Uncle Sonny died during WW2 (his death cert. says 1938), my paternal grandmother died giving birth to Aunt Josephine (she died 2 years later giving birth to child # 10), and no one got pregnant before marriage (I discovered that from 1830 on, 80% of my female ancestors were pregnant at marriage) Love the stories, but the truth is often more fascinating. No one knew my grandfather had been married before my grandmother. And there is no divorce record on file. I still haven't had the heart to tell my mom. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Pat McCoy" <p.a.mccoy@att.net> To: <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 2:45 PM Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > Just my perception (based on what I heard > my German-descended relatives speak about): > > If the fairy story was being told during the period(s) > in our history where anti-German sentiment was > extremely high, that story might have probably > been told out of fear of being attacked for "being > German" and self-preservation. Just my half-cent's > worth of opinion, (FWIW). > > Pat McCoy, M.S. > > Addiction Psychology > > Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! > ================================================= > > > ________________________________ > From: Kathy Cochran <kathys_old_house@goldrush.com> > To: hesse@rootsweb.com > Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 2:32:04 PM > Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > > I completely second that about not trusting family history! For some > reason > my grandmother helped to perpetuate a "fairy story" that our family (Adam > & > Sophia Born) was from Alsace-Lorraine, where I looked and looked and > looked > in vain. I FINALLY found them in Alzey, Hessen, Darmstadt, (thanks to > Alexis Jungk, on this list!) . There was never any acknowledgment that we > were German at all! Now I know why I'm so stubborn (smile)! And, from > what > I have gathered Alzey was NEVER within the boundaries of Alsace-Lorraine, > even though the boundaries of that area were ever changing due to the > wars. > > > > > I only wish I knew why this was so! (the fairy story) > > > > Kathy Cochran > > San Andreas, CA > > > > From: hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com [mailto:hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com] On > Behalf Of Raymond F. Gunther > Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:06 AM > To: hesse@rootsweb.com > Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > > > > Do Not Trust Family Oral History !!!!!!!!!!!!!! > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Charles Hofacker" <chofack@gmail.com> > To: <hesse@rootsweb.com> > Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:12 AM > Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > > >> Hi all -- >> >> I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as >> tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the >> meantime you might help someone else. >> >> While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not >> investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical >> stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply >> statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. >> >> In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great >> grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from >> Salmunster, >> a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, >> but >> I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a >> mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they >> related? >> >> Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing >> these sorts of questions? >> >> Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions >> unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the >> probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is >> "small" >> and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any >> tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to >> approach the problem of doing such calculations. >> >> Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to >> email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the >> question. >> __________________________________________________________________ >> Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> >> FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> >> Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | >> Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> >> | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | >> Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> >> <http://twitter.com/chofack> >> >> >> >> On Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 09:29, Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> wrote: >> >>> >From my perspective, I don't think it will hurt to >>> explore this possible clue to see if it pans out for >>> you. If it turns out that the person is not related, >>> you could still share it with someone else who >>> may be looking for it. >>> >>> Pat McCoy, M.S. >>> >>> Addiction Psychology >>> >>> Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! >>> ================================================== >>> >>> >>> ________________________________ >>> From: "user917826@aol.com" <user917826@aol.com> >>> To: hesse@rootsweb.com >>> Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 8:17:54 AM >>> Subject: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> Hi everyone, >>> >>> I often jump to conclusions but I would like someone to weigh in on this >>> set of >>> events. My 3 ggrandfather, Johann George Heck, b. 13 Sept. 1811 in >>> Gross-Karben, left his home town and married a woman from >>> Kircheimbolanden, >>> Bayern in 1840. Johann Georg was the son of Johann Heinrich Heck also >>> of >>> Karben. Following the trail back, our earliest ancestor, Hermann Heck, >>> b. >>> circa 1703 was not from Karben but came there by 1750, working as a >>> shepherd. >>> >>> Going through my notebooks for possible Heck connections, I revisited >>> one >>> Heinrich Heck b. 1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, Oberhessen. >>> Mapquesting >>> the >>> town, I have found that it appears to be about 7 minutes from >>> Kirscheimbolanden >>> and about an hour from Gross-Karben. >>> >>> Would it be likely that there might be a family connection here? My 3 >>> great >>> grandfather was a "master tailor" from Karben. He raised his children >>> in >>> Kirscheimbolanden and left for the US circa 1850 when he was widowed. >>> >>> Thanks, >>> >>> Bev W >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> ------------------------------- >>> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >>> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com >>> with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the >>> body >>> of >>> the message >>> >>> ------------------------------- >>> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >>> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the >>> quotes >>> in the subject and the body of the message >>> >> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes >> in the subject and the body of the message > > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in > the subject and the body of the message > > _____ > > No virus found in this message. > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com > Version: 10.0.1204 / Virus Database: 1498/3506 - Release Date: 03/14/11 > > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com > with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body > of > the message > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in the subject and the body of the message

    03/14/2011 09:13:40
    1. Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions
    2. mmongoose
    3. As a person with 75% German ancestry, I totally agree that many of them had embraced their adopted country (perhaps Generations back ) and were embarrassed at what what was going on in the united Germany. German was dropped from the schools in Evansville Indiana where I was born and which had many German settlers. My father decided that we were now from Alsace - tho even as a young child I never accepted for a moment. We were from LOTS of places in what was called at one tine or another the Palatine, Rhenish Bavaria ... or a number of small states which frequently changed rulers through marriage or being otherwise attached to a more powerful neighbors. Many of my ancestors lived near Alzey in what looked like walking distance on the inadequate map I had -- but they were were lines who then officially lived in totally different governing districts - (Including KircheimBolandan) and some didnt meet until they reached Indiana. I am most proud of those Germans who came just before the civil war -- may to avoid military service in their homeland == adopted their new country and served their new country voluntarily. When Lincoln realized that it was going to be a long one, added to his calls for men to serve a few months to 3 years and many Germans insisted in those companies. When I heard that my Great Granddad had come home on furlough - gotten married = and interestedly, I was shocked that the honeymoon was over so soon. It was a long time before I got the timing straight. It was 1864 when Lincoln was running against McClellan who was promising to end the war - which was not going well in the east - He seemed unlikely to win - and worse, those 3 year soldiers were at the end of their enlistment time.... But, as someone put it -- those vets -- including my granddad who was with Sherman - Reenlisted - got their furlough voted for Lincoln (and got married like GrandPo -) and went back to finish the job. (By the way when they asked him how he survived the march through Georgia he said he hid behind a tree. Feigel Elzer Rimstidt Griess (Converted to Gryce by an uncle) Maier Schneider Decker Dietrich ..Bretz .. and a bunch more in Hesse Rhenish Bavaria and - including the soutn and all those families south west and NORTH of Alsey Pat McCoy wrote: > Just my perception (based on what I heard > my German-descended relatives speak about): > > If the fairy story was being told during the period(s) > in our history where anti-German sentiment was > extremely high, that story might have probably > been told out of fear of being attacked for "being > German" and self-preservation. Just my half-cent's > worth of opinion, (FWIW). > > Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! > ================================================= > > > ________________________________ > From: Kathy Cochran <kathys_old_house@goldrush.com> > To: hesse@rootsweb.com > Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 2:32:04 PM > Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > > I completely second that about not trusting family history! For some reason > my grandmother helped to perpetuate a "fairy story" that our family (Adam & > Sophia Born) was from Alsace-Lorraine, where I looked and looked and looked > in vain. I FINALLY found them in Alzey, Hessen, Darmstadt, (thanks to > Alexis Jungk, on this list!) . There was never any acknowledgment that we > were German at all! Now I know why I'm so stubborn (smile)! And, from what > I have gathered Alzey was NEVER within the boundaries of Alsace-Lorraine, > even though the boundaries of that area were ever changing due to the wars. > > > > > I only wish I knew why this was so! (the fairy story) > > > > Kathy Cochran > > San Andreas, CA > > > > From: hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com [mailto:hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com] On > Behalf Of Raymond F. Gunther > Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:06 AM > To: hesse@rootsweb.com > Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > > > > Do Not Trust Family Oral History !!!!!!!!!!!!!! > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Charles Hofacker" <chofack@gmail.com> > To: <hesse@rootsweb.com> > Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:12 AM > Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > > > >> Hi all -- >> >> I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as >> tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the >> meantime you might help someone else. >> >> While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not >> investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical >> stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply >> statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. >> >> In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great >> grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from >> Salmunster, >> a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, >> but >> I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a >> mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they >> related? >> >> Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing >> these sorts of questions? >> >> Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions >> unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the >> probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is "small" >> and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any >> tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to >> approach the problem of doing such calculations. >> >> Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to >> email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the >> question. >> __________________________________________________________________ >> Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> >> FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> >> Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | >> Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> >> | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | >> Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> >> <http://twitter.com/chofack> >> >> >>> ================================================== >>> >>> b. >>> circa 1703 was not from Karben but came there by 1750, working as a >>> shepherd. >>> >>> Going through my notebooks for possible Heck connections, I revisited one >>> Heinrich Heck b. 1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, Oberhessen. Mapquesting >>> the >>> town, I have found that it appears to be about 7 minutes from >>> Kirscheimbolanden >>> and about an hour from Gross-Karben. >>> >>> Would it be likely that there might be a family connection here? My 3 >>> great >>> grandfather was a "master tailor" from Karben. He raised his children in >>> Kirscheimbolanden and left for the US circa 1850 when he was widowed. >>> >>> Thanks, >>> >>> Bev W >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> ------------------------------- >>> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >>> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com >>> with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the >>> body >>> of >>> the message >>> >>> ------------------------------- >>> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >>> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes >>> in the subject and the body of the message >>> >>> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes >> in the subject and the body of the message >> > > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in > the subject and the body of the message > > _____ > > No virus found in this message. > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com > Version: 10.0.1204 / Virus Database: 1498/3506 - Release Date: 03/14/11 > > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com > with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of > the message > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message > >

    03/28/2011 03:12:15