Charles Google the subject of genealogy mathmatics, or similar terms. while doing searches of my own suing Google, I remember that subject being mentioned a number of times. Jerry Dittman Boonsboro, MD ----- Original Message ----- From: "Charles Hofacker" <chofack@gmail.com> To: <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:12 AM Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > Hi all -- > > I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as > tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the > meantime you might help someone else. > > While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not > investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical > stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply > statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. > > In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great > grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from > Salmunster, > a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, > but > I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a > mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they > related? > > Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing > these sorts of questions? > > Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions > unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the > probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is > "small" > and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any > tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to > approach the problem of doing such calculations. > > Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to > email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the > question. > __________________________________________________________________ > Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | > Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> > | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | > Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> > <http://twitter.com/chofack> > > > > On Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 09:29, Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> wrote: > >> >From my perspective, I don't think it will hurt to >> explore this possible clue to see if it pans out for >> you. If it turns out that the person is not related, >> you could still share it with someone else who >> may be looking for it. >> >> Pat McCoy, M.S. >> >> Addiction Psychology >> >> Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! >> ================================================== >> >> >> ________________________________ >> From: "user917826@aol.com" <user917826@aol.com> >> To: hesse@rootsweb.com >> Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 8:17:54 AM >> Subject: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions >> >> >> >> >> Hi everyone, >> >> I often jump to conclusions but I would like someone to weigh in on this >> set of >> events. My 3 ggrandfather, Johann George Heck, b. 13 Sept. 1811 in >> Gross-Karben, left his home town and married a woman from >> Kircheimbolanden, >> Bayern in 1840. Johann Georg was the son of Johann Heinrich Heck also >> of >> Karben. Following the trail back, our earliest ancestor, Hermann Heck, >> b. >> circa 1703 was not from Karben but came there by 1750, working as a >> shepherd. >> >> Going through my notebooks for possible Heck connections, I revisited >> one >> Heinrich Heck b. 1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, Oberhessen. >> Mapquesting >> the >> town, I have found that it appears to be about 7 minutes from >> Kirscheimbolanden >> and about an hour from Gross-Karben. >> >> Would it be likely that there might be a family connection here? My 3 >> great >> grandfather was a "master tailor" from Karben. He raised his children >> in >> Kirscheimbolanden and left for the US circa 1850 when he was widowed. >> >> Thanks, >> >> Bev W >> >> >> >> >> >> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com >> with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the >> body >> of >> the message >> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the >> quotes >> in the subject and the body of the message >> > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in the subject and the body of the message

Hi jwr184, actually both might be right, I have seen a child named after an older sibling that did not survive infancy. Alexis 2011/3/14 <jwr184@aol.com> > > My b-i-l's aunt INSISTED she was born in 1914. > > Her mother stated she was two years old in the 1910 Census. > > Who would know, Mom or lying old aunt? > > The end. > > > AMEN to THAT! > Learned to search for documentation > efore I would accept ANY relative's > ord about anything!!! > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> > To: hesse <hesse@rootsweb.com> > Sent: Mon, Mar 14, 2011 2:28 pm > Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > > > AMEN to THAT! > Learned to search for documentation > efore I would accept ANY relative's > ord about anything!!! It got to be > > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in the subject and the body of the message >

Hi Charles, I'm not a statistician but have had some experience with it because of my work, I would appreciate a copy of your spreadsheet. (ajungk at gmail dot com). I have been brooding about how to approach these cases, I think that maybe a 'circumstantial evidence' approach could be worthwhile, specially as in one of my lines, where the archives were destroyed (WWII) and there is no chance of verifying anything. Alexis 2011/3/14 Charles Hofacker <chofack@gmail.com> > Hi all -- > > I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as > tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the > meantime you might help someone else. > > While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not > investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical > stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply > statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. > > In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great > grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from > Salmunster, > a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, > but > I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a > mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they > related? > > Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing > these sorts of questions? > > Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions > unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the > probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is "small" > and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any > tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to > approach the problem of doing such calculations. > > Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to > email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the > question. > __________________________________________________________________ > Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | > Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> > | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | > Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> > <http://twitter.com/chofack> > > > > On Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 09:29, Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> wrote: > > > >From my perspective, I don't think it will hurt to > > explore this possible clue to see if it pans out for > > you. If it turns out that the person is not related, > > you could still share it with someone else who > > may be looking for it. > > > > Pat McCoy, M.S. > > > > Addiction Psychology > > > > Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! > > ================================================== > > > > > > ________________________________ > > From: "user917826@aol.com" <user917826@aol.com> > > To: hesse@rootsweb.com > > Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 8:17:54 AM > > Subject: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > > > > > > > > > > Hi everyone, > > > > I often jump to conclusions but I would like someone to weigh in on this > > set of > > events. My 3 ggrandfather, Johann George Heck, b. 13 Sept. 1811 in > > Gross-Karben, left his home town and married a woman from > Kircheimbolanden, > > Bayern in 1840. Johann Georg was the son of Johann Heinrich Heck also of > > Karben. Following the trail back, our earliest ancestor, Hermann Heck, > b. > > circa 1703 was not from Karben but came there by 1750, working as a > > shepherd. > > > > Going through my notebooks for possible Heck connections, I revisited one > > Heinrich Heck b. 1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, Oberhessen. Mapquesting > > the > > town, I have found that it appears to be about 7 minutes from > > Kirscheimbolanden > > and about an hour from Gross-Karben. > > > > Would it be likely that there might be a family connection here? My 3 > > great > > grandfather was a "master tailor" from Karben. He raised his children in > > Kirscheimbolanden and left for the US circa 1850 when he was widowed. > > > > Thanks, > > > > Bev W > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------- > > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com > > with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the > body > > of > > the message > > > > ------------------------------- > > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the > quotes > > in the subject and the body of the message > > > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in the subject and the body of the message >

Bev, According to ShtetlSeeker : 1) GroßKarben is 10 miles NNE of Frankfurt 2) Kirchheimbolanden is 42 miles SW of Frankfurt (about 50 miles SW of GroßKarben) and in the former Bavarian Pfalz, now Rhein-Pfalz, and not in Bavaria as we know it. 3) Dauernheim (no place called Dauerheim) is 30 miles NE of Frankfurt or about 20 miles from GroßKarben and about 70 miles from Kirchheimbolanden. BTW, the family religion is another important piece of information. As Marleen stated the records for Kirchheimbolanden (as well as Groß Karben and Dauernheim) can be rented at your local LDS Family History Center ============ Kirchenbuch, 1686-1961 Katholische Kirche Kirchheimbolanden (BA. Kirchheimbolanden) (Main Author) Parish registers of baptisms, marriages and deaths for Kirchheimbolanden, Bayern, Germany. Kirchenbuch, 1689-1925 Evangelische Kirche Kirchheimbolanden (BA. Kirchheimbolanden) (Main Author) Parish registers of baptisms, confirmations, marriages, deaths, indexes, communicants and other records of the Lutheran and Reformed parishes in Kirchheimbolanden, Bayern, Germany. Zivilstandsregister, 1799-1821 Kirchheimbolanden (Bayern). Standesamt (Main Author) Mikrofilme aufgenommen von Manuskripten im Staatsarchiv Speyer. Marriage banns and marriage supplements (birth and death documentations relating to marriages 1799-1821). Kirchenbuchduplikat, 1808-1875 Evangelische Kirche Groß Karben (Kr. Friedberg) (Main Author) Parish register transcripts of baptisms, marriages and burials for Groß Karben, Hessen, Germany. Church book, 1554-1875 Evangelical Church Dauernheim (Kr Büdingen) (Main Author) Parish register births, marriages, deaths and confirmations of Dauernheim (Kr Büdingen), Hesse, includes Blofeld, the courts breakdown field and high Dauernheim, Hessen. =========== Also note there is a published familienbuch for Groß Karben. It has not been microfilmed, so it cannot be rented at your local FHC. However someone may have a copy, or you can purchase a copy. =========== Gross-Karbener Familien, 1654-99 Max Steinbaur Genealogical data on families of Groß Karben and Klein Karben, Hesse, Germany. The data was extracted from Church records, grouped in families and arranged alphabetically by surname. =========== At 01:06 PM 3/14/2011, you wrote: >From: user917826@aol.com >Subject: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions >To: hesse@rootsweb.com > >Hi everyone, > >I often jump to conclusions but I would like >someone to weigh in on this set of events. My 3 >ggrandfather, Johann George Heck, b. 13 Sept. >1811 in Gross-Karben, left his home town and >married a woman from Kircheimbolanden, Bayern in >1840. Johann Georg was the son of Johann >Heinrich Heck also of Karben. Following the >trail back, our earliest ancestor, Hermann >Heck, b. circa 1703 was not from Karben but came >there by 1750, working as a shepherd. > >Going through my notebooks for possible Heck >connections, I revisited one Heinrich Heck b. >1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, >Oberhessen. Mapquesting the town, I have found >that it appears to be about 7 minutes from >Kirscheimbolanden and about an hour from Gross-Karben. > >Would it be likely that there might be a family >connection here? My 3 great grandfather was a >"master tailor" from Karben. He raised his >children in Kirscheimbolanden and left for the >US circa 1850 when he was widowed. > >Thanks, > >Bev W ____________________________________________________________ Groupon&#8482 Official Site 1 ridiculously huge coupon a day. Get 50-90% off your city&#39;s best! http://thirdpartyoffers.netzero.net/TGL3241/4d7e8bd4adf17111313st05vuc

Pat... That is just very crazy and very sad!!! Bev W -----Original Message----- From: Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> To: hesse <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Mon, Mar 14, 2011 3:06 pm Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Unfortunately, that has happened to me too hen I came across incontrovertible roof that I have African-American lood running through my veins. everal relatives refuse to acknowledge hat I'm blood-related to them because f my racial identity and will no longer ommunicate with me. Pat McCoy, M.S. Addiction Psychology Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! ========================================== _______________________________ rom: Kathy Cochran <kathys_old_house@goldrush.com> o: hesse@rootsweb.com ent: Mon, March 14, 2011 2:54:38 PM ubject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions This is QUITE a hot topic, it is seeming. I contacted a long-lost cousin ith all the information about our relatives from Alzey, (I THOUGHT she ould be THRILLED!) and she responded back with, "Well, actually is it ooking like we are from Alsace-Lorraine. You shouldn't be so dismissive nd disrespectful of family stories and traditions." I was FLOORED! I mailed her back, but I am sure that I will NEVER hear from her again! Oh ell! Kathy Cochran San Andreas, CA From: hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com [mailto:hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com] On ehalf Of Pat McCoy ent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:27 AM o: hesse@rootsweb.com ubject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions AMEN to THAT! Learned to search for documentation efore I would accept ANY relative's ord about anything!!! It got to be UN when they would attempt to NSIST that such-and-such was an BSOLUTE FACT and I would roduce black-and-white legal ocumentation that NEGATED VERYTHING they tried to nsist on! (This was in connection o the truth about my own father!) hat finally stopped all the mind games" when they realized wasn't buying the bull! Pat McCoy, M.S. Addiction Psychology Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! ======================================= _______________________________ rom: Raymond F. Gunther <raygun33@optonline.net> o: hesse@rootsweb.com ent: Mon, March 14, 2011 2:06:01 PM ubject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Do Not Trust Family Oral History !!!!!!!!!!!!!! ---- Original Message ----- rom: "Charles Hofacker" <chofack@gmail.com> o: <hesse@rootsweb.com> ent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:12 AM ubject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Hi all -- I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the meantime you might help someone else. While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from Salmunster, a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, but I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they related? Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing these sorts of questions? Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is "small" and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to approach the problem of doing such calculations. Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the question. __________________________________________________________________ Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> <http://twitter.com/chofack> On Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 09:29, Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> wrote: > >From my perspective, I don't think it will hurt to > explore this possible clue to see if it pans out for > you. If it turns out that the person is not related, > you could still share it with someone else who > may be looking for it. > > Pat McCoy, M.S. > > Addiction Psychology > > Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! > ================================================== > > > ________________________________ > From: "user917826@aol.com" <user917826@aol.com> > To: hesse@rootsweb.com > Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 8:17:54 AM > Subject: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > > > > > Hi everyone, > > I often jump to conclusions but I would like someone to weigh in on this > set of > events. My 3 ggrandfather, Johann George Heck, b. 13 Sept. 1811 in > Gross-Karben, left his home town and married a woman from > Kircheimbolanden, > Bayern in 1840. Johann Georg was the son of Johann Heinrich Heck also of > Karben. Following the trail back, our earliest ancestor, Hermann Heck, > b. > circa 1703 was not from Karben but came there by 1750, working as a > shepherd. > > Going through my notebooks for possible Heck connections, I revisited one > Heinrich Heck b. 1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, Oberhessen. Mapquesting > the > town, I have found that it appears to be about 7 minutes from > Kirscheimbolanden > and about an hour from Gross-Karben. > > Would it be likely that there might be a family connection here? My 3 > great > grandfather was a "master tailor" from Karben. He raised his children in > Kirscheimbolanden and left for the US circa 1850 when he was widowed. > > Thanks, > > Bev W > > > > > > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com > with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the > body > of > the message > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in the subject and the body of the message > ------------------------------- To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message ------------------------------ o unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to ESSE-request@rootsweb.com ith the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body f he message ------------------------------- o unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to ESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in he subject and the body of the message _____ No virus found in this message. hecked by AVG - www.avg.com ersion: 10.0.1204 / Virus Database: 1498/3506 - Release Date: 03/14/11 ------------------------------ o unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of he message ------------------------------ o unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com ith the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of he message

Hi Marlene, I actually found the records for my grreat great grandmother in those IGI records. Through those records we learned that her father was from Gros-Karben. She had actually listed Frankfurt as his birthplace on the census record. The first researcher that I worked with actually was going to do more investigating for me in Kircheimbolanden. From what she told me, Peter Tork (remember the Monkees???) had ancestry from there. Small world! Bev W -----Original Message----- From: Marleen Van Horne <msvnhrn@jps.net> To: hesse <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Mon, Mar 14, 2011 3:02 pm Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Regarding Kirscheimbolenden: I have ancestors from Ilbesheim Kirscheimbolenden. The church records ave been transcribed and are available through the IGI on amilysearch.org. The trick is that you have to do an IGI batch search n the surname to find every one of a specific surname in the church ecords. There are three sets of information: Batch Numbers: J989001 = male baptisms L989001 = female baptisms M989001 = marriages To get to this information, go to the website above. Scroll down to the ottom of the page. In small print there is a link to the old amilysearch. When you get the form, click on advanced search, then lick on IGI. Fill in the last name, and Germany and Bayern. Put one f the above batch numbers in the BATCH box. You will get all the ntries under that surname. I was able to take my Emerick ancestors back to 1650 or so, and found he names of the wives and their families. I have actually seen the microfilm for these church records. The riginal is in very bad shape, and stained, so that whole areas were nreadable. It seems to me that there are many more records available ow, than there were when I first looked at these records. It would ppear that the Library has used some enhancements on the film to bring ut more information. Marleen Van Horne ------------------------------ o unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com ith the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of he message

Looks like we all have some "stories" in our backgrounds. I have a cousin who swears that our great grandfather came from England because "Pop" (our grandfather) said so. Upon receiving his Civil War records and DC he was born in Ireland to Irish parents and emigrated to England during the famine. I found them living outside of London, so he came from England to the USA but that's it and she will swear to this day we have no Irish blood. My mother swore Chauncey St. in Brooklyn, NY was named after her uncle but my father's mother was a Chauncey and I learned too late it was named after Capt. Isaac Chauncey founder of the Bklyn Navy Yard that family claim was related to my gggrandfather. Her German ancestor supposedly came from Alsace-Lorraine which they didn't, came from a town called Kell, north of Trier. Big mistake to think family lore is gospel. Arden NY COLE, CHAUNCEY, ADAM, SCHERMULY, BEAVER, ADLER, ZYFERS, TERHORST > This is QUITE a hot topic, it is seeming. I contacted a long-lost cousin > with all the information about our relatives from Alzey, (I THOUGHT she > would be THRILLED!) and she responded back with, "Well, actually is it > looking like we are from Alsace-Lorraine. You shouldn't be so dismissive > and disrespectful of family stories and traditions." I was FLOORED! I > emailed her back, but I am sure that I will NEVER hear from her again! Oh > well! > > > > Kathy Cochran

I still have to find the port of departure for my g-g-grandfather so I can look for the tree where he buried the treasure he made off with from the Royal Treasury (where he was a guard) during the 1848 revolution. Even recent info got butchered in my family. My Uncle Sonny died during WW2 (his death cert. says 1938), my paternal grandmother died giving birth to Aunt Josephine (she died 2 years later giving birth to child # 10), and no one got pregnant before marriage (I discovered that from 1830 on, 80% of my female ancestors were pregnant at marriage) Love the stories, but the truth is often more fascinating. No one knew my grandfather had been married before my grandmother. And there is no divorce record on file. I still haven't had the heart to tell my mom. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Pat McCoy" <p.a.mccoy@att.net> To: <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 2:45 PM Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > Just my perception (based on what I heard > my German-descended relatives speak about): > > If the fairy story was being told during the period(s) > in our history where anti-German sentiment was > extremely high, that story might have probably > been told out of fear of being attacked for "being > German" and self-preservation. Just my half-cent's > worth of opinion, (FWIW). > > Pat McCoy, M.S. > > Addiction Psychology > > Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! > ================================================= > > > ________________________________ > From: Kathy Cochran <kathys_old_house@goldrush.com> > To: hesse@rootsweb.com > Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 2:32:04 PM > Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > > I completely second that about not trusting family history! For some > reason > my grandmother helped to perpetuate a "fairy story" that our family (Adam > & > Sophia Born) was from Alsace-Lorraine, where I looked and looked and > looked > in vain. I FINALLY found them in Alzey, Hessen, Darmstadt, (thanks to > Alexis Jungk, on this list!) . There was never any acknowledgment that we > were German at all! Now I know why I'm so stubborn (smile)! And, from > what > I have gathered Alzey was NEVER within the boundaries of Alsace-Lorraine, > even though the boundaries of that area were ever changing due to the > wars. > > > > > I only wish I knew why this was so! (the fairy story) > > > > Kathy Cochran > > San Andreas, CA > > > > From: hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com [mailto:hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com] On > Behalf Of Raymond F. Gunther > Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:06 AM > To: hesse@rootsweb.com > Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > > > > Do Not Trust Family Oral History !!!!!!!!!!!!!! > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Charles Hofacker" <chofack@gmail.com> > To: <hesse@rootsweb.com> > Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:12 AM > Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > > >> Hi all -- >> >> I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as >> tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the >> meantime you might help someone else. >> >> While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not >> investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical >> stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply >> statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. >> >> In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great >> grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from >> Salmunster, >> a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, >> but >> I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a >> mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they >> related? >> >> Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing >> these sorts of questions? >> >> Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions >> unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the >> probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is >> "small" >> and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any >> tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to >> approach the problem of doing such calculations. >> >> Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to >> email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the >> question. >> __________________________________________________________________ >> Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> >> FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> >> Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | >> Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> >> | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | >> Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> >> <http://twitter.com/chofack> >> >> >> >> On Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 09:29, Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> wrote: >> >>> >From my perspective, I don't think it will hurt to >>> explore this possible clue to see if it pans out for >>> you. If it turns out that the person is not related, >>> you could still share it with someone else who >>> may be looking for it. >>> >>> Pat McCoy, M.S. >>> >>> Addiction Psychology >>> >>> Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! >>> ================================================== >>> >>> >>> ________________________________ >>> From: "user917826@aol.com" <user917826@aol.com> >>> To: hesse@rootsweb.com >>> Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 8:17:54 AM >>> Subject: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> Hi everyone, >>> >>> I often jump to conclusions but I would like someone to weigh in on this >>> set of >>> events. My 3 ggrandfather, Johann George Heck, b. 13 Sept. 1811 in >>> Gross-Karben, left his home town and married a woman from >>> Kircheimbolanden, >>> Bayern in 1840. Johann Georg was the son of Johann Heinrich Heck also >>> of >>> Karben. Following the trail back, our earliest ancestor, Hermann Heck, >>> b. >>> circa 1703 was not from Karben but came there by 1750, working as a >>> shepherd. >>> >>> Going through my notebooks for possible Heck connections, I revisited >>> one >>> Heinrich Heck b. 1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, Oberhessen. >>> Mapquesting >>> the >>> town, I have found that it appears to be about 7 minutes from >>> Kirscheimbolanden >>> and about an hour from Gross-Karben. >>> >>> Would it be likely that there might be a family connection here? My 3 >>> great >>> grandfather was a "master tailor" from Karben. He raised his children >>> in >>> Kirscheimbolanden and left for the US circa 1850 when he was widowed. >>> >>> Thanks, >>> >>> Bev W >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> ------------------------------- >>> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >>> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com >>> with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the >>> body >>> of >>> the message >>> >>> ------------------------------- >>> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >>> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the >>> quotes >>> in the subject and the body of the message >>> >> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes >> in the subject and the body of the message > > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in > the subject and the body of the message > > _____ > > No virus found in this message. > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com > Version: 10.0.1204 / Virus Database: 1498/3506 - Release Date: 03/14/11 > > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com > with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body > of > the message > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in the subject and the body of the message

My niece's (an ALLEN) grandmother gave me a CD of her family info, and cautioned me that no one knew of the Polish Connection. Grandma's grandfather changed his name from Jerzkowski to Allen. Niece thought she was Irish, shocked to find the Polish Connection when I gave her a Fam Tree for a wedding gift. Groom married her anyway. (JOKE) JWR -----Original Message----- From: Kathy Cochran <kathys_old_house@goldrush.com> To: hesse <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Mon, Mar 14, 2011 2:56 pm Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions This is QUITE a hot topic, it is seeming. I contacted a long-lost cousin ith all the information about our relatives from Alzey, (I THOUGHT she ould be THRILLED!) and she responded back with, "Well, actually is it ooking like we are from Alsace-Lorraine. You shouldn't be so dismissive nd disrespectful of family stories and traditions." I was FLOORED! I mailed her back, but I am sure that I will NEVER hear from her again! Oh ell!

My b-i-l's aunt INSISTED she was born in 1914. Her mother stated she was two years old in the 1910 Census. Who would know, Mom or lying old aunt? The end. AMEN to THAT! Learned to search for documentation efore I would accept ANY relative's ord about anything!!! -----Original Message----- From: Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> To: hesse <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Mon, Mar 14, 2011 2:28 pm Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions AMEN to THAT! Learned to search for documentation efore I would accept ANY relative's ord about anything!!! It got to be

Also be very CAREFUL when using Ancestry. More and more garbage shows up every day. JWR Do Not Trust Family Oral History !!!!!!!!!!!!!! -----Original Message----- From: Raymond F. Gunther <raygun33@optonline.net> To: hesse <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Mon, Mar 14, 2011 2:07 pm Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Do Not Trust Family Oral History !!!!!!!!!!!!!! ---- Original Message ----- rom: "Charles Hofacker" <chofack@gmail.com> o: <hesse@rootsweb.com> ent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:12 AM ubject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Hi all -- I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the meantime you might help someone else. While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from Salmunster, a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, but I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they related? Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing these sorts of questions? Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is "small" and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to approach the problem of doing such calculations. Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the question. __________________________________________________________________ Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> <http://twitter.com/chofack>

FYI... We had almost NO family information about our Heck line prior to coming to the US. Thankfully, my gggrandmother was a little more specific than usual on the 1880 census. It has been slow going. I have learned quite a few family surprises since this family settled in the US,though, not to mention a few secrets. Bev W -----Original Message----- From: Marleen Van Horne <msvnhrn@jps.net> To: hesse <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Mon, Mar 14, 2011 2:31 pm Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Raymond, Amen and Amen, again. Marleen Van Horne ------------------------------ o unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com ith the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of he message

Do Not Trust Family Oral History !!!!!!!!!!!!!! ----- Original Message ----- From: "Charles Hofacker" <chofack@gmail.com> To: <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:12 AM Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > Hi all -- > > I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as > tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the > meantime you might help someone else. > > While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not > investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical > stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply > statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. > > In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great > grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from > Salmunster, > a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, > but > I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a > mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they > related? > > Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing > these sorts of questions? > > Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions > unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the > probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is "small" > and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any > tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to > approach the problem of doing such calculations. > > Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to > email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the > question. > __________________________________________________________________ > Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | > Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> > | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | > Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> > <http://twitter.com/chofack> > > > > On Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 09:29, Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> wrote: > >> >From my perspective, I don't think it will hurt to >> explore this possible clue to see if it pans out for >> you. If it turns out that the person is not related, >> you could still share it with someone else who >> may be looking for it. >> >> Pat McCoy, M.S. >> >> Addiction Psychology >> >> Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! >> ================================================== >> >> >> ________________________________ >> From: "user917826@aol.com" <user917826@aol.com> >> To: hesse@rootsweb.com >> Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 8:17:54 AM >> Subject: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions >> >> >> >> >> Hi everyone, >> >> I often jump to conclusions but I would like someone to weigh in on this >> set of >> events. My 3 ggrandfather, Johann George Heck, b. 13 Sept. 1811 in >> Gross-Karben, left his home town and married a woman from >> Kircheimbolanden, >> Bayern in 1840. Johann Georg was the son of Johann Heinrich Heck also of >> Karben. Following the trail back, our earliest ancestor, Hermann Heck, >> b. >> circa 1703 was not from Karben but came there by 1750, working as a >> shepherd. >> >> Going through my notebooks for possible Heck connections, I revisited one >> Heinrich Heck b. 1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, Oberhessen. Mapquesting >> the >> town, I have found that it appears to be about 7 minutes from >> Kirscheimbolanden >> and about an hour from Gross-Karben. >> >> Would it be likely that there might be a family connection here? My 3 >> great >> grandfather was a "master tailor" from Karben. He raised his children in >> Kirscheimbolanden and left for the US circa 1850 when he was widowed. >> >> Thanks, >> >> Bev W >> >> >> >> >> >> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com >> with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the >> body >> of >> the message >> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes >> in the subject and the body of the message >> > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in the subject and the body of the message

The IGI was riddled with mistakes on my German family, so I would use it as another tool, but not the final word. Get the actual documents. Familysearch.org is rapidly uploading records, it's wonderful. But it's people like me transcribing, and others double checking, and mistakes are still made. I wouldn't trust only that as the final word on my family either. The family stories crack me up! But I've found with all our family stories that there is always an element that is correct - might be very small but you can see it and partly how these stories grew and were embellished. Susan Sent from my iPhone On Mar 14, 2011, at 1:01 PM, user917826@aol.com wrote: > > Hi Marlene, > > I actually found the records for my grreat great grandmother in those IGI records. > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Marleen Van Horne <msvnhrn@jps.net> > To: hesse <hesse@rootsweb.com> > Sent: Mon, Mar 14, 2011 3:02 pm > Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > > > Regarding Kirscheimbolenden: > I have ancestors from Ilbesheim Kirscheimbolenden. The church records > ave been transcribed and are available through the IGI on > amilysearch.org. The trick is that you have to do an IGI batch search > n the surname to find every one of a specific surname in the church > ecords. There are three sets of information: > Batch Numbers: > J989001 = male baptisms > L989001 = female baptisms > M989001 = marriages > To get to this information, go to the website above. Scroll down to the > ottom of the page. In small print there is a link to the old > amilysearch. When you get the form, click on advanced search, then > lick on IGI. Fill in the last name, and Germany and Bayern. Put one > f the above batch numbers in the BATCH box. You will get all the > ntries under that surname. > I was able to take my Emerick ancestors back to 1650 or so, and found > he names of the wives and their families. > I have actually seen the microfilm for these church records. The > riginal is in very bad shape, and stained, so that whole areas were > nreadable. It seems to me that there are many more records available > ow, than there were when I first looked at these records. It would > ppear that the Library has used some enhancements on the film to bring > ut more information. > Marleen Van Horne > > ------------------------------ > o unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com > ith the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of > he message > > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message

I went to grade school and high school with a Theodore Hofacker (graduated hi school 1946) Allentown, Pa, Lehigh County......rather close to Carbon County. Thought this might fit into the puzzle. On Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 11:11 AM, Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> wrote: > I can identify with what you describe, > especially when it involves a family name > that is very rare. > > The more I find two specific people turning > up close to each, repeatedly, including > adjoining burial plots, the more my gut keeps > telling me that they are related. It's just a > question of turning over the right "rock" and > finding that ONE document that says: "BINGO!" > > It took quite a while for my cousins and I to > finally unearth the proof we were looking for > that indicated that two SONNEMANN men > are, indeed, brothers. We just kept persisting. > > Pat McCoy, M.S. > > Addiction Psychology > > Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! > ============================================== > > > ________________________________ > From: Charles Hofacker <chofack@gmail.com> > To: hesse@rootsweb.com > Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 11:12:56 AM > Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > > Hi all -- > > I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as > tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the > meantime you might help someone else. > > While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not > investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical > stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply > statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. > > In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great > grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from > Salmunster, > a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, > but > I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a > mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they > related? > > Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing > these sorts of questions? > > Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions > unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the > probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is "small" > and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any > tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to > approach the problem of doing such calculations. > > Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to > email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the > question. > __________________________________________________________________ > Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | > Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> > | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | > Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> > <http://twitter.com/chofack> > > > > On Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 09:29, Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> wrote: > > > >From my perspective, I don't think it will hurt to > > explore this possible clue to see if it pans out for > > you. If it turns out that the person is not related, > > you could still share it with someone else who > > may be looking for it. > > > > Pat McCoy, M.S. > > > > Addiction Psychology > > > > Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! > > ================================================== > > > > > > ________________________________ > > From: "user917826@aol.com" <user917826@aol.com> > > To: hesse@rootsweb.com > > Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 8:17:54 AM > > Subject: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > > > > > > > > > > Hi everyone, > > > > I often jump to conclusions but I would like someone to weigh in on this > > set of > > events. My 3 ggrandfather, Johann George Heck, b. 13 Sept. 1811 in > > Gross-Karben, left his home town and married a woman from > Kircheimbolanden, > > Bayern in 1840. Johann Georg was the son of Johann Heinrich Heck also of > > Karben. Following the trail back, our earliest ancestor, Hermann Heck, > b. > > circa 1703 was not from Karben but came there by 1750, working as a > > shepherd. > > > > Going through my notebooks for possible Heck connections, I revisited one > > Heinrich Heck b. 1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, Oberhessen. Mapquesting > > the > > town, I have found that it appears to be about 7 minutes from > > Kirscheimbolanden > > and about an hour from Gross-Karben. > > > > Would it be likely that there might be a family connection here? My 3 > > great > > grandfather was a "master tailor" from Karben. He raised his children in > > Kirscheimbolanden and left for the US circa 1850 when he was widowed. > > > > Thanks, > > > > Bev W > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------- > > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com > > with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the > body > > of > > the message > > > > ------------------------------- > > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the > quotes > > in the subject and the body of the message > > > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com > with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body > of > the message > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in the subject and the body of the message >

You can't always count on the family trees - you have to use Ancestry for original documents like censuses and birth and death certificates. Kathy From: hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com [mailto:hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com] On Behalf Of jwr184@aol.com Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:48 AM To: hesse@rootsweb.com Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Also be very CAREFUL when using Ancestry. More and more garbage shows up every day. JWR Do Not Trust Family Oral History !!!!!!!!!!!!!! -----Original Message----- From: Raymond F. Gunther <raygun33@optonline.net> To: hesse <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Mon, Mar 14, 2011 2:07 pm Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Do Not Trust Family Oral History !!!!!!!!!!!!!! ---- Original Message ----- rom: "Charles Hofacker" <chofack@gmail.com> o: <hesse@rootsweb.com> ent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:12 AM ubject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Hi all -- I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the meantime you might help someone else. While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from Salmunster, a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, but I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they related? Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing these sorts of questions? Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is "small" and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to approach the problem of doing such calculations. Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the question. __________________________________________________________________ Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> <http://twitter.com/chofack> ------------------------------- To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message _____ No virus found in this message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 10.0.1204 / Virus Database: 1498/3506 - Release Date: 03/14/11

Unfortunately, that has happened to me too when I came across incontrovertible proof that I have African-American blood running through my veins. Several relatives refuse to acknowledge that I'm blood-related to them because of my racial identity and will no longer communicate with me. Pat McCoy, M.S. Addiction Psychology Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! =========================================== ________________________________ From: Kathy Cochran <kathys_old_house@goldrush.com> To: hesse@rootsweb.com Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 2:54:38 PM Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions This is QUITE a hot topic, it is seeming. I contacted a long-lost cousin with all the information about our relatives from Alzey, (I THOUGHT she would be THRILLED!) and she responded back with, "Well, actually is it looking like we are from Alsace-Lorraine. You shouldn't be so dismissive and disrespectful of family stories and traditions." I was FLOORED! I emailed her back, but I am sure that I will NEVER hear from her again! Oh well! Kathy Cochran San Andreas, CA From: hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com [mailto:hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com] On Behalf Of Pat McCoy Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:27 AM To: hesse@rootsweb.com Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions AMEN to THAT! Learned to search for documentation before I would accept ANY relative's word about anything!!! It got to be FUN when they would attempt to INSIST that such-and-such was an ABSOLUTE FACT and I would produce black-and-white legal documentation that NEGATED EVERYTHING they tried to insist on! (This was in connection to the truth about my own father!) That finally stopped all the "mind games" when they realized I wasn't buying the bull! Pat McCoy, M.S. Addiction Psychology Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! ======================================== ________________________________ From: Raymond F. Gunther <raygun33@optonline.net> To: hesse@rootsweb.com Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 2:06:01 PM Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Do Not Trust Family Oral History !!!!!!!!!!!!!! ----- Original Message ----- From: "Charles Hofacker" <chofack@gmail.com> To: <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:12 AM Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > Hi all -- > > I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as > tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the > meantime you might help someone else. > > While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not > investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical > stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply > statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. > > In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great > grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from > Salmunster, > a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, > but > I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a > mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they > related? > > Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing > these sorts of questions? > > Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions > unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the > probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is "small" > and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any > tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to > approach the problem of doing such calculations. > > Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to > email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the > question. > __________________________________________________________________ > Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | > Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> > | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | > Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> > <http://twitter.com/chofack> > > > > On Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 09:29, Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> wrote: > >> >From my perspective, I don't think it will hurt to >> explore this possible clue to see if it pans out for >> you. If it turns out that the person is not related, >> you could still share it with someone else who >> may be looking for it. >> >> Pat McCoy, M.S. >> >> Addiction Psychology >> >> Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! >> ================================================== >> >> >> ________________________________ >> From: "user917826@aol.com" <user917826@aol.com> >> To: hesse@rootsweb.com >> Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 8:17:54 AM >> Subject: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions >> >> >> >> >> Hi everyone, >> >> I often jump to conclusions but I would like someone to weigh in on this >> set of >> events. My 3 ggrandfather, Johann George Heck, b. 13 Sept. 1811 in >> Gross-Karben, left his home town and married a woman from >> Kircheimbolanden, >> Bayern in 1840. Johann Georg was the son of Johann Heinrich Heck also of >> Karben. Following the trail back, our earliest ancestor, Hermann Heck, >> b. >> circa 1703 was not from Karben but came there by 1750, working as a >> shepherd. >> >> Going through my notebooks for possible Heck connections, I revisited one >> Heinrich Heck b. 1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, Oberhessen. Mapquesting >> the >> town, I have found that it appears to be about 7 minutes from >> Kirscheimbolanden >> and about an hour from Gross-Karben. >> >> Would it be likely that there might be a family connection here? My 3 >> great >> grandfather was a "master tailor" from Karben. He raised his children in >> Kirscheimbolanden and left for the US circa 1850 when he was widowed. >> >> Thanks, >> >> Bev W >> >> >> >> >> >> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com >> with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the >> body >> of >> the message >> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes >> in the subject and the body of the message >> > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in the subject and the body of the message ------------------------------- To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message ------------------------------- To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message _____ No virus found in this message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 10.0.1204 / Virus Database: 1498/3506 - Release Date: 03/14/11 ------------------------------- To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message

LOL!!!! Or as I would sometime comment, "Who do you expect me to believe... you or my lying eyes?" Pat McCoy, M.S. Addiction Psychology Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! ============================================= ________________________________ From: "jwr184@aol.com" <jwr184@aol.com> To: hesse@rootsweb.com Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 2:52:40 PM Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions My b-i-l's aunt INSISTED she was born in 1914. Her mother stated she was two years old in the 1910 Census. Who would know, Mom or lying old aunt? The end. AMEN to THAT! Learned to search for documentation efore I would accept ANY relative's ord about anything!!! -----Original Message----- From: Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> To: hesse <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Mon, Mar 14, 2011 2:28 pm Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions AMEN to THAT! Learned to search for documentation efore I would accept ANY relative's ord about anything!!! It got to be ------------------------------- To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message

Regarding Kirscheimbolenden: I have ancestors from Ilbesheim Kirscheimbolenden. The church records have been transcribed and are available through the IGI on familysearch.org. The trick is that you have to do an IGI batch search on the surname to find every one of a specific surname in the church records. There are three sets of information: Batch Numbers: J989001 = male baptisms L989001 = female baptisms M989001 = marriages To get to this information, go to the website above. Scroll down to the bottom of the page. In small print there is a link to the old Familysearch. When you get the form, click on advanced search, then click on IGI. Fill in the last name, and Germany and Bayern. Put one of the above batch numbers in the BATCH box. You will get all the entries under that surname. I was able to take my Emerick ancestors back to 1650 or so, and found the names of the wives and their families. I have actually seen the microfilm for these church records. The original is in very bad shape, and stained, so that whole areas were unreadable. It seems to me that there are many more records available now, than there were when I first looked at these records. It would appear that the Library has used some enhancements on the film to bring out more information. Marleen Van Horne

This is QUITE a hot topic, it is seeming. I contacted a long-lost cousin with all the information about our relatives from Alzey, (I THOUGHT she would be THRILLED!) and she responded back with, "Well, actually is it looking like we are from Alsace-Lorraine. You shouldn't be so dismissive and disrespectful of family stories and traditions." I was FLOORED! I emailed her back, but I am sure that I will NEVER hear from her again! Oh well! Kathy Cochran San Andreas, CA From: hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com [mailto:hesse-bounces@rootsweb.com] On Behalf Of Pat McCoy Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:27 AM To: hesse@rootsweb.com Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions AMEN to THAT! Learned to search for documentation before I would accept ANY relative's word about anything!!! It got to be FUN when they would attempt to INSIST that such-and-such was an ABSOLUTE FACT and I would produce black-and-white legal documentation that NEGATED EVERYTHING they tried to insist on! (This was in connection to the truth about my own father!) That finally stopped all the "mind games" when they realized I wasn't buying the bull! Pat McCoy, M.S. Addiction Psychology Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! ======================================== ________________________________ From: Raymond F. Gunther <raygun33@optonline.net> To: hesse@rootsweb.com Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 2:06:01 PM Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions Do Not Trust Family Oral History !!!!!!!!!!!!!! ----- Original Message ----- From: "Charles Hofacker" <chofack@gmail.com> To: <hesse@rootsweb.com> Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 11:12 AM Subject: Re: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions > Hi all -- > > I would second Pat's answer. Explore but then keep the results tagged as > tentative or exploratory until a more definitive result emerges. In the > meantime you might help someone else. > > While on this general topic of jumping to conclusions, when I am not > investigating family roots in Hesse, in my other life I do statistical > stuff. I have been looking in vain for books or articles on how to apply > statistical or mathematical reasoning to questions like these. > > In my own case, I call it the 'Francis Hofacker' problem. My great-great > grand uncle Killian Hofacker migrated to Carbon County, PA, from > Salmunster, > a town east of Frankfurt. My family was well acquainted with this fact, > but > I have recently discovered that a certain Francis Hofacker lived about a > mile and a half from Killian. So is this a coincidence or were they > related? > > Has anyone run into any technical or mathematical writings on assessing > these sorts of questions? > > Mostly what I see is the conservative ideal to not jump to conclusions > unless you are absolutely certain, which I interpret to mean that the > probability of you being wrong when you say person X is related is "small" > and the probability that you are correct is "large". I have not seen any > tools that help you calculate these probabilities or advice as to how to > approach the problem of doing such calculations. > > Anyone with mathematical or computational interests should feel free to > email me for a draft spreadsheet I have worked up to help me decide the > question. > __________________________________________________________________ > Charles Hofacker: My <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > FSU<http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> > Page <http://myweb.fsu.edu/chofacker> | > Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/chofack> > | Delicious <http://www.delicious.com/chofack> | > Twitter<http://twitter.com/chofack> > <http://twitter.com/chofack> > > > > On Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 09:29, Pat McCoy <p.a.mccoy@att.net> wrote: > >> >From my perspective, I don't think it will hurt to >> explore this possible clue to see if it pans out for >> you. If it turns out that the person is not related, >> you could still share it with someone else who >> may be looking for it. >> >> Pat McCoy, M.S. >> >> Addiction Psychology >> >> Slow Down and Enjoy Your Garden! >> ================================================== >> >> >> ________________________________ >> From: "user917826@aol.com" <user917826@aol.com> >> To: hesse@rootsweb.com >> Sent: Mon, March 14, 2011 8:17:54 AM >> Subject: [HESSE] Jumping to conclusions >> >> >> >> >> Hi everyone, >> >> I often jump to conclusions but I would like someone to weigh in on this >> set of >> events. My 3 ggrandfather, Johann George Heck, b. 13 Sept. 1811 in >> Gross-Karben, left his home town and married a woman from >> Kircheimbolanden, >> Bayern in 1840. Johann Georg was the son of Johann Heinrich Heck also of >> Karben. Following the trail back, our earliest ancestor, Hermann Heck, >> b. >> circa 1703 was not from Karben but came there by 1750, working as a >> shepherd. >> >> Going through my notebooks for possible Heck connections, I revisited one >> Heinrich Heck b. 1657 and d. 1718, in Dauerheim, Oberhessen. Mapquesting >> the >> town, I have found that it appears to be about 7 minutes from >> Kirscheimbolanden >> and about an hour from Gross-Karben. >> >> Would it be likely that there might be a family connection here? My 3 >> great >> grandfather was a "master tailor" from Karben. He raised his children in >> Kirscheimbolanden and left for the US circa 1850 when he was widowed. >> >> Thanks, >> >> Bev W >> >> >> >> >> >> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com >> with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the >> body >> of >> the message >> >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes >> in the subject and the body of the message >> > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to > HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes > in the subject and the body of the message ------------------------------- To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message ------------------------------- To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to HESSE-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message _____ No virus found in this message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 10.0.1204 / Virus Database: 1498/3506 - Release Date: 03/14/11