I had not. Thank you. d On Tue, Apr 25, 2017 at 12:31 PM, Marie Byatt <morris12m@sbcglobal.net> wrote: > Have you looked at > http://one-name.org/wiki/guild-wiki/analyse/study-size/ > > > Marie (GOONS 5318) Bringing the world together one surname at a time. 'A Pepler Name' http://pepler.tribalpages.com 'Hedgerow - the Ancestors' http://cranberry.tribalpages.com Pepler DNA Study http://www.familytreedna.com/public/pepler-ow/ 'Scroops, Scropes and Scroopes' http://dentonlk.tribalpages.com > 'Peplers and Peplows' pepler.one-name.net > > > > > ________________________________ > From: Doug Beezley <dbeezley@gmail.com> > To: Goons Mailing List <goons@rootsweb.com> > Sent: Tuesday, April 25, 2017 9:48 AM > Subject: [G] Defining an ONS - Size of project > > > > The is a recent discussion of "Scope of an ONS - Spouses families". I > > believe it a good thing to compare notes on how we define what we do. > > > There has been a discussion about estimating the size of the ONS. > > Unless I've missed something (and most likely I have), the most > > specific ideas have to do with using UK census figures which are, of > > course, a limited population. > > > The tools I have used are: > > > http://forebears.io/surnames/ > > http://worldnames.publicprofiler.org/ > > > They each have their advantages. I find that, for statistical > > purposes, Forebears is more useful but I've used both for maps that > > can drill down into the statistics. > > > I suspect most such tools are going to be more useful for English > > based names, but I have no way to know that, as mine is clearly of Old > > English derivation. I have found no other derivation that would lead > > to modern usage of the name with its principal variations (in order of > > prevalence) Beasley, Beesley, Beazley, and Beezley. Minor variations > > might include Beasly or Beesly. I do include a number of deviations if > > they are statistically significant because there are many that > > represent misspellings that are likely intended to be one of the major > > variations. > > > It is necessary to approach this with a good idea of what are your > > variations and what are your deviations. In order to capture the best > > range, it is necessary to search for more than one variation. Then it > > is necessary to sort out results that fall below a level of > > statistical significance. At some point, you come up with a number > > that seems a solid estimate. > > > Before I found the links above, I used the US 2000 census which listed > > incidence and ranking of all surnames registering at least 100 > > individuals. In that case, the four major variations accounted for > > 50,948. The only logical deviations (3) that made the cut only added > > another 750. > > > Using Forebears, the US count for the four major variations is 59,441, > > adding 866 for another 6 deviations. The world count (filtering out > > countries and deviations to a level of significance at least 98% of > > the total world count) > > > The Total World Count (all countries, all variations/deviations) is > > 85,305. The TWC of the four major variations is 82,392. > > > The Total World Filtered Count is 84,122 and the TWFC for the four > > major variations is 81,314. > > > Stepping back from all the reasons why precise numbers are useless, we > > can come up with a range that I would feel safe saying the incidence > > of my surname to be between 80,000 and 90,000 worldwide. While the > > capture of any particular surname in these tools is going to vary, the > > results need to be taken with a grain of salt. However, we might be > > able to broadly compare the size of our ONS projects and how the > > conduct and results of the project may vary at different size levels. > > > Here are links to the charts where I took my numbers in the narrative above: > > > Compare US 2000 census with Forebears: > > https://1drv.ms/i/s!AqrESx5rTBC7j-cB-UKi0CQUzfJwdQ > > > Forebears results; variations and deviations by country: > > https://1drv.ms/i/s!AqrESx5rTBC7j-cAR6jIwozunuyEWA > > > Doug Beezley > > _____________________________________________ > > > Information and admin page: > > http://one-name.org/guild-information-administration/ > > ------------------------------- > > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to GOONS-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message > _____________________________________________ > > Information and admin page: > http://one-name.org/guild-information-administration/ > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to GOONS-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message