"Max Blankfeld" <max@familytreedna.com> wrote: > Let's look at it, therefore, in a more analytical way: there are > subjective perceptions, pro and con, and then, there's the science. Let's discuss the science first. I have this quote from you: An exact match means that: 50% of the times a common ancestor existed 7 generations or less 90% of the times a common ancestor existed 23 generations or less 95% of the times a common ancestor existed 30 generations or less Let's suppose I round up 50 or 100 men with the name PENCE to do a surname analysis seeking to find which may stem from which progenitors in the U.S. This sort of an approach seems to be popular right now (and of some considerable value when properly designed to test a stated hypotheses). Let's further say the tests cost $100 a throw. Now, after we spend $5,000 or $10,000, will the report say there is a 50 percent chance that cenrtain specific persons within the sample are related within seven generations? If not, then what will we get for our investment? If I had $5,000 or $10,000 to spend on Pence family research I think I could find some more definitive results. Only a small fraction of the existing records have been adequately researched. And even after the DNA testing dust had settled, these records still would have to be checked to confirm any clues that the DNA testing might provide. > Every one has the right to chose their own approach towards > something, and so, it is within your right to believe that time has > not come for you to add DNA to the set of tools available for your > genealogy research, because you don't know enough of it. That's OK. If I left the impression that the reason I am not pursuing DNA testing right now is that I "don't know enough of it" and that "it" is Pence genealogy, I apologize. At this point I think there is more value in other approaches than there is in DNA testing. There certainly is no lack of opportunites for a whole lot more "traditonal research." If your implication is that I don't know enough about DNA testing, then you may be right. But what I do know about it tells me what I said in my first message - the cost-benefit ratio isn't what I think is reasonable. > On the opposite side you have those that found enormous value to it. > Just join the DNA-GENEALOGY list at Rootsweb and check it. I'll take a look. But as I said before, someone may place a high value on knowing that he and a correspondent are somehow related. However, this knowledge is of little value to a genealogists without proper documentation establishing or confirming that link. > The science is there for everybody to check it thoroughly. The > customers are there for you to question them and challenge their > findings directly. I don't think it's fair for their findings to be > challenged without giving them the opportunity to interact with you. > And I don't think it is fair to challenge the science without fully > understanding it. I am not sure what conclusions could be reached by my "challenging their findings directly." Isn't this supposed to be science? Aren't the "findings" suppose to statements of fact? What "findings" are lay persons obtaining from these studies? It is often difficult to keep those starting out in genealogy from making unwarranted "leaps" based on a similarity of given names or the fact that people lived in the same area. Based on that experience, it is not at all hard for me to believe that even more experience researchers are convinced of "the enormous value" of the results of their investment in a DNA study. Even to the point of making assumptions that are not supported by science and representing them as "valuable results." I have learned that it is foolish to ignore any clue, no matter how preposterous or naive it may seem. I also believe that there is a role for science in genealogy - in this case, a role for DNA testing. Right now, however, I think too much is being expected, perhaps because too much is being promised. And, worse, too much is being claimed that is not supportable by the scientific facts. As I said, I never underestimate the power of a researcher (especially one with a vested interest) to force a desired result from the flimsiest of clues. Richard A. Pence, 3211 Adams Ct, Fairfax, VA 22030 Voice 703-591-4243 Fax 703-352-3560 Pence Family History <http://www.pipeline.com/~richardpence/> "Richard A. Pence" <richardpence@pipeline.com>