Dear Members of Woodchurch Ancestry Group I was intrigued by the email exchanges on the bubonic plague and other possible epidemics in Woodchurch. As we now have baptisms and burials complete from 1676 I decided to use this data, unavailable before, to check the period 1676-1700 for signs of possible epidemics. I produced two sets of charts using MS Works Spreadsheet, one set of five showing baptisms per month for each five year period and the second set of five showing burials per month for each five year period. There appeared to be a significant rise in burials between October 1678 and March 1680. Further analysis of the two sets of data showed, using a 21 month moving average, showed that baptisms averaged about 1.5 per month from January 1676 to September 1678. For the same period burials averaged about 1.0 per month. Ceteris paribus, (other things remaining equal) there was a net village population gain of about 15 between January 1676 and September 1678. Between October 1678 and March 1680 there were 68 burials, an average of 3.78 per month. The net gain of 15 from January 1676 became a net loss of 29 by April 1680. The Curate at the period, while not giving cause of death in the Burial Register, gave family relationships and marital status. 12 of the 68 burials were wives. Burials spiked again between October 1680 and November 1681 when there were 35, an average of 2.5 per month. 5 of the 35 burials were wives. The number of baptisms per month fell to under 1.0 from 1680 to 1684 when it recovered to about 1.5. Ceteris paribus, the net loss to the population of Woodchurch between January 1676 and March 1684 reached 72. Baptisms and burials returned to the normal monthly averages of about 1.5 and 1.0 respectively for the rest of the century and by December 1700 the net population loss from January 1676 was only 3. I then attempted to make some sort of total village population calculation using the same data. Using as a model a study done in Kingsthorpe, Northampton, where the Chowns came from, I calculated an 11 year moving average which I then multiplied by 30 and 35 to produce an approximate spread. This calculation works well I have found when checked against known totals provided the population does not change rapidly. For 1681, the earliest year by this method, this calculation produced a total population for Woodchurch of between 458 and 535. The death of 68 villagers in a 20 month period represented a loss of between 15% and 13% respectively, or about 1 in 7! I can think of no comparative modern loss of life including two world wars and Spanish Flu that could possibly equate. The 10 charts I produced are available on request in PDF Format but will need to be sent to requesters direct. Best wishes - Bob Chown

That's very interesting , Bob. It's going to take me a few readings to understand it all! Yes, please send on your charts to me. Also the 20 month period you refer to...did the deaths occur fairly regularly or were there peaks and troughs? Thanks, Josie

Yes please Bob , regards Lynn & Ross ----- Original Message ----- From: "BOB CHOWN" <bob.chown@btinternet.com> To: "Woodchurch FHS" <ENG-KEN-WOODCHURCH@rootsweb.com> Sent: Thursday, August 30, 2007 8:37 PM Subject: [ENG-KEN-WOODCHURCH] The Woodchurch Epidemic October 1678 to March1680 > Dear Members of Woodchurch Ancestry Group > > I was intrigued by the email exchanges on the bubonic plague and other possible epidemics in Woodchurch. As we now have baptisms and burials complete from 1676 I decided to use this data, unavailable before, to check the period 1676-1700 for signs of possible epidemics. > > I produced two sets of charts using MS Works Spreadsheet, one set of five showing baptisms per month for each five year period and the second set of five showing burials per month for each five year period. There appeared to be a significant rise in burials between October 1678 and March 1680. Further analysis of the two sets of data showed, using a 21 month moving average, showed that baptisms averaged about 1.5 per month from January 1676 to September 1678. For the same period burials averaged about 1.0 per month. Ceteris paribus, (other things remaining equal) there was a net village population gain of about 15 between January 1676 and September 1678. > > Between October 1678 and March 1680 there were 68 burials, an average of 3.78 per month. The net gain of 15 from January 1676 became a net loss of 29 by April 1680. The Curate at the period, while not giving cause of death in the Burial Register, gave family relationships and marital status. 12 of the 68 burials were wives. > > Burials spiked again between October 1680 and November 1681 when there were 35, an average of 2.5 per month. 5 of the 35 burials were wives. The number of baptisms per month fell to under 1.0 from 1680 to 1684 when it recovered to about 1.5. Ceteris paribus, the net loss to the population of Woodchurch between January 1676 and March 1684 reached 72. Baptisms and burials returned to the normal monthly averages of about 1.5 and 1.0 respectively for the rest of the century and by December 1700 the net population loss from January 1676 was only 3. > > I then attempted to make some sort of total village population calculation using the same data. Using as a model a study done in Kingsthorpe, Northampton, where the Chowns came from, I calculated an 11 year moving average which I then multiplied by 30 and 35 to produce an approximate spread. This calculation works well I have found when checked against known totals provided the population does not change rapidly. For 1681, the earliest year by this method, this calculation produced a total population for Woodchurch of between 458 and 535. The death of 68 villagers in a 20 month period represented a loss of between 15% and 13% respectively, or about 1 in 7! I can think of no comparative modern loss of life including two world wars and Spanish Flu that could possibly equate. > > The 10 charts I produced are available on request in PDF Format but will need to be sent to requesters direct. > > Best wishes - Bob Chown > > > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to ENG-KEN-WOODCHURCH-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message > > > -- > No virus found in this incoming message. > Checked by AVG Free Edition. > Version: 7.5.484 / Virus Database: 269.12.12/979 - Release Date: 29/08/07 8:21 PM > >