Brief ??? on the "Paper" Re: "The Paper" by William E. Howard III and John D. McLaughlin -- First of all I recommend reading the paper. It could be useful. The main features of this essay appear to be: # 1. The putative ancestor of NWIM (R222) lived ca. 2000 - 1400 BCE. # 2. Possible to show probable genetic connections between different families and estimates as to when and how their ancestors diverged. # 3. NWIM originated in Scotland. Criticisms of above three points: 1. The 2000 - 1400 BCE date for an ancestor is based on an estimate of one mutation in about 5.5 generations. Recent research however indicates that the rate is 4 per 13 generations which is 1 .25 per 3 generations and not one per 5.5 [1]http://sandwalk.blogspot.com/2009/08/human-y-chromosome-mutation-rates.ht ml [2]http://www.physorg.com/news170595325.html This cuts the estimated time in half giving us ca. 0 to 500 CE. This fits in with the time of Neil. 2. The estimates as to divergences of ancestry and place of divergence should be compared with family traditions. These assumedly exist in some cases. 3. The Scottish origin idea seems to be based on two assumptions: a. Present concentrations of NWIM in northwest and west may be explained by historical phenomenon. Eliminate them and one is lest with a tendency to the northeast i.e. in the direction of Scotland. b. Many family traditions even in Ireland of NWIM bearers say their ancestors originated in Scotland. Regarding a. this is not serious since every other statistical height may also be explained by historical circumstances. Concerning b. it all depends on what families were chosen and then we must ask why Irish tradition (where most NWIMs are located) does not mention any such thing. A few extracts from the Paper with Remarks (see also Enlightening Glossary for the Layman, provided by us, below the Abstract): A Dated Phylogenetic Tree of M222 SNP Haplotypes: Exploring the DNA of Irish and Scottish Surnames and Possible Ties to Niall and the Uí Néill Kindred [3]http://mysite.verizon.net/weh8/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/M222Pa per.pdf -- William E. Howard III and John D. McLaughlin -- ABSTRACT Using an application program, Mathematica1, we have produced a phylogenetic tree directly from a set of Y-DNA haplotypes of male testees who carry the M222 Single- Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP). The tree has a time scale, derived from pedigrees2, which is built into the program code3. Evolutionary relationships of the major features of the M222 phylogenetic tree are discussed. A new approach has been developed that dates a SNP by counting the number of lines of descent on a phylogenetic tree which appear at successive slices of time. We show that the M222 SNP originated between 1400 and 2000 BC and we explore living conditions in Ireland and Scotland at that time. Heuristic arguments point to an origin in Scotland, long before the reign of the Irish Chieftain Niall (of the Nine Hostages). After Nialls supposed reign, but before the year 1000, a proliferation of the SNP took place as evidenced by the many points on the tree at which the most recent common ancestors of current M222 testees lived. This situation probably occurred along with a general population explosion at the time just before surnames were adopted in Ireland. Although we have found no evidence from studies of phylogenetic trees that the progeny of Niall or his supposed descendants, the Uí Néills, contributed significantly to this explosion, we have found a bimodality in the M222 histogram that may connect the ages of two concentrations of M222 with Irish history. From their positions on the M222 phylogenetic tree, we can show how a few groups of different surnames are related to each other and how the times of origin of an M222 line that later becomes a surname cluster can be derived from a progenitor whose testee-descendants carry many different surnames. In cases where there are two clusters with two different surnames that are closely located in a phylogenetic tree, we suggest that they may share not only a recent common ancestor but also may have lived in close geographic proximity. Enlightening Glossary for the Layman: #Heuristic arguments point to an origin in Scotland# i.e. an educated guess!! whose education? #Bimodal# i.e two different groups. #not only a recent common ancestor but also may have lived in close geographic proximity#. i.e. not only did they have the same ancestor but that ancestor was not two different people and managed (presumably at the time of procreation) to keep himself in one place and not two different ones at the very same time! More of the same form the main body of the article: #If a pedigree trail and the DNA evidence both point to a particular ancestor, it is highly probable that both the trail AND the DNA evidence merely go through that ancestor without originating there.# i.e. the person concerned really may be the ancestor but he had a daddy who begat him! These articles develop a time scale, called a Revised Correlation Coefficient, or RCC that can be used to investigate the evolutionary relationships that tie genetics to genealogy, history, and anthropology over tens of thousands of years by analyzing various clusters of haplotypes. The time scale has been calibrated with over 100 pedigrees, so that one RCC is equivalent to just under 50 years. We know that a 37 marker haplotype will have a mutation about every 137 years, or one mutation in about 5.5 generations, as the line goes down from progenitor to testee, i.e., from RCC = 20 to zero. There will be, on average, about 6.3 mutations along the line, but that can vary, perhaps by +/- 2.5 mutations because mutations occur at random2 . Earlier studies of the origin of the M222 SNP have suggested dates ranging between 1360 and 1740 years ago (RCCs between 31 and 40)2 19. A Trinity College study in 2005 estimated the time of origin to be 1730 years ago, or about 275 AD with a large SD of 670 years20 . These determinations resulted from studies of surname pairs within a much smaller database than we now have. In 2005 John McEwan estimated a date of origin 3362 years ago, or about 1357 BC21 . A more recent determination estimates the date as 3000 years ago, or about 1000 BC22 . The links on our larger M222 trees provide valuable additional information that shows that the mutation occurred far before the life of the putative King Niall or his descendants. One reason that may explain the high incidence of M222 in northwest Ireland found by the Trinity study relies on a tie to Irish culture and its system of kings and chieftains, all of whom were related by kingship as part of the same tribe. The concentration extends down into the heart of Connacht into Roscommon, Sligo and Mayo. The kings and chieftains held these same territories from the time of Niall or earlier, well into the 1500s until the English conquest. Offshoots of the same tribe in these territories also controlled most of the important church positions and lay positions within the church and society. They had a selective breeding advantage. The Uí Néill and Connachta enjoyed this privileged position for centuries and they did not move. The one known exception to this rule was the push by the Uí Néill into other parts of Ulster around 1000 AD, and that is also probably why the density of M222 is higher in those areas. Moffat and Wilson contend that the prevalence of M222 in Ireland proves it originated there and then migrated to Scotland, probably with the Dal Riata settlement in western Scotland27 . A convincing reason why there are two M222 concentrations toward the west rather than being more uniformly concentrated along the northern coast still eludes us. It might be explained either by ancestral arrivals there by sea from the east or from early land migrations prompted by a recognition that life was easier there than in areas to the east. We really do not know where Niall lived around 400-450 AD. There were no writings in Ireland at the time and most of the written stories of Niall originated much later, about 600-800 AD. It is said that he was High King of Ireland, which equates to being King of Tara in Meath, the royal center of Ireland for centuries. Pointing out the analogy with the male-line descendants of Genghis Khan, the Trinity study suggested that the high incidence of the M222 signature may be the result of a similar linkage to an ancient, enduring dynasty in Ireland and further noted that the prestige and power of the Uí Néill descendants of Niall supports both the veracity of the semi-mythological early genealogies and provides a powerful illustration of the potential link between prolificacy and power and how the enhancement of the M222 SNP in northwest Ireland where the Uí Néills dominated can be influenced by social selection. The Trinity studys argument links the Uí Néill descendants only through their presence and the M222 concentration. It is not based on a population explosion over and above the normal increases in population that were occurring at that time. The lack of a bulge in the number of lines of descent on the M222 tree at these times gives no support to any contention that an enhanced reproductive activity of Niall or the Uí Néills led to such a population explosion nor to the concentration of M222 observed in NW Ireland. We believe that the Trinity study may have been too hasty when it linked Niall to the concentrations of DNA they found. While it may have happened, such a bulge in the number of lines of descent at the time that Niall or the Uí Néills lived is not apparent from our data. Concentrations of DNA do not necessarily indicate that one or more male Uí Néills were responsible for that concentration. It may also indicate a lack of mobility of a non-Niall progenitor and his descendants who carried the mutation. This issue is unresolved. We counted the number of testees who named Ireland or Northern Ireland as their ancestral country of origin, and the number who named Scotland. References 1. http://sandwalk.blogspot.com/2009/08/human-y-chromosome-mutation-rates.html 2. http://www.physorg.com/news170595325.html 3. http://mysite.verizon.net/weh8/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/M222Paper.pdf