Bob, I know that Bill has responded with the big picture, but I think you should be aware that there are plenty of STR comparisons wrt the modal within surname groups. For instance, in my area of interest, such comparisons have enabled the identification of individuals carrying different surnames as being part of our family cluster. From another perspective, the reliance on STR analysis alone limits our chance of finding the latest possible pre-M222 haplotype, which I think will be a necessary part of determining ancestral locations. Don't forget that it is hypothetically possible to have two identical haplotypes, one descended from the brother of the M222 mutant. Given that M222 is substantially different from L21 (or whatever the ancestral SNP turns out to be), there might have been a significant time interval during which many of the variations developed before the actual SNP mutation. So, despite Bill's position, I believe there is value to be had in modal analysis. David Grierson On 10/10/2011 3:00 PM, Bob Quinn wrote: > I am RM222 and would like to know if there is any STR by STR analysis of the modal YDNA for RM222 that would indicate what various differences to the modal might mean for an individual? > > Bob Quinn >

List, I would like to echo what David has said below. In fact Bill Howard, by telling us we don't need the M222 SNP test and spending time analysing what are actually pseudo-M222 people, is preventing us from discovering the origins. Identifying the surnames and geographical origins of the pre-M222 population is absolutely essential. Stating that the definition of M222 has changed will baffle those who are new to this list. It hasn't. What we should surely be doing as a minimum is doing all we can to encourage the people who stand the highest chance of being pre-M222 to take the SNP test (the only M222 test); although with back mutations I am not sure how predictable they are. There could even be people close to the modal who are M222- although as this is statistically unlikely they are admittedly not the best people to target. I don't want to sound ungrateful for all the work Bill is doing and his recent posts, but wanted to just take issue on this one point. As for the Trinity study, all their testing was done using Irish samples. They did however use the Capelli dataset for comparison with Scotland, albeit only to draw what to me sounds like a preconceived conclusion that M222 came from Ireland. The Capelli testing only used two points from the western half of Scotland - Oban and the Western Isles (Stornoway area by the looks of the map). Since then I think only Sykes has published any Scottish data on the same scale and his regions were rather on the large size for our purposes, particularly in the crucial south-west. cheers Iain http://www.kennedydna.com > Date: Tue, 11 Oct 2011 10:54:30 +1100 > From: grierson@melbpc.org.au > To: dna-r1b1c7@rootsweb.com > Subject: Re: [R-M222] Summary of a distracting series > > Bob, > I know that Bill has responded with the big picture, but I think you > should be aware that there are plenty of STR comparisons wrt the modal > within surname groups. For instance, in my area of interest, such > comparisons have enabled the identification of individuals carrying > different surnames as being part of our family cluster. > From another perspective, the reliance on STR analysis alone limits our > chance of finding the latest possible pre-M222 haplotype, which I think > will be a necessary part of determining ancestral locations. Don't > forget that it is hypothetically possible to have two identical > haplotypes, one descended from the brother of the M222 mutant. Given > that M222 is substantially different from L21 (or whatever the ancestral > SNP turns out to be), there might have been a significant time interval > during which many of the variations developed before the actual SNP > mutation. So, despite Bill's position, I believe there is value to be > had in modal analysis. > David Grierson > > On 10/10/2011 3:00 PM, Bob Quinn wrote: > > I am RM222 and would like to know if there is any STR by STR analysis of the modal YDNA for RM222 that would indicate what various differences to the modal might mean for an individual? > > > > Bob Quinn > > > > R1b1c7 Research and Links: > > http://clanmaclochlainn.com/R1b1c7/ > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to DNA-R1B1C7-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message

Just a note to reply to Iain's comments about "pseudo-M222" people and discovering the pre-M222 origins. First, there are honest disagreements as to whether a testee should be tested for M222 if other aspects of his haplotype indicate that he is a member of the group. I am agreeing with John McLaughlin on this point, having shown that the so-called "pseudo-M222" group has over 73% of each of their markers that agree with the M222 modal for each of those markers. If that is the case, I see no reason to spend the money on the test. It is not M222 that has changed, it's how we have defined it that has changed. We now have an approach that we have used to analyze M222 carriers that highly correlates with the results of the SNP test. What looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, is, for all practical purposes, a duck! As for discovering the pre-M222 origins, because of the nature of mutations and the existence of the M222 SNP, you cannot find who the male progenitors of the first M222 carrier lived unless you have some idea of the SNPs or makeup of the marker strings that eventually give way to the progenitor of M222. You need an evolutionary diagram for that -- a phylogenetic tree that connects M222 to those origins. That is what the ISOGG is doing. There is some thought that L21 is a near progenitor of M222 and it may well be, but it will contain many L21 (but not M222) folks and they need to be put into a phylogenetic tree of their own kind like the one that John and I have produced for M222, but with a time scale (viz., RCC) attached to the tree. The ISOGG has such a tree, but no time scale. If the pre-M222 origins originate from the L21 folks, then the latter progenitor should be older than the M222 progenitor. I have run a tree on the L21 set, but have not done much with it since John McLaughlin kindly sent me a very large sample of L21s. What I did find, and it is a preliminary result, is that the progenitor of the L21 set lived at a date that corresponds to RCC ~ 187, which converts to about 8100 years ago, or about 6150 BC, nicely older than M222's progenitor who may have descended from the progenitor of L21. But this is very preliminary. We pretty well know roughly where the progenitor of M222 lived and we know something about the modern surnames of his descendants, and they are presented in the paper that John and I wrote which we hope will be published later this year in the journal FAMILIA published by the Ulster Historical Society. Iain writes about the absolute necessity of discovering the origins of M222 without specifying what he meant by the term "origin" beyond surnames and location. I would submit that without gathering testee results over several thousand more carriers (won't happen soon), or some breakthrough in another field of Y-DNA analysis like the one we have made with the RCC time scale, we are constrained to draw our conclusions on the testees we have in hand now. Finally, I certainly do not want to discourage further investigation into the origins of the M222 SNP and we should encourage more to be tested for their Y-DNA, but I fear that the Law of Diminishing returns may set in, forcing us to look in different directions than we have in the past. Whether this means many more testees or pursuing breakthroughs in other areas is problematical at present. I have just heard from the new editor of the JoGG that the two papers I have authored with Tei Gordon (on the Gordons) and with Fred Schwab (introducing Mathematica as the program that can generate a phylogenetic tree with the RCC time scale and illustrating it with an analysis of the Gordons) will probably be included in the 2011 issue of JoGG if we make some changes in the Gordon paper that have been suggested by the referees. That's good news for us. I will be out of the country (tour to So. Africa) between 15 October and the middle of November, and I did want to get this reply off to the List before I depart. Best wishes to all. - Bye from Bill Howard On Oct 11, 2011, at 4:36 AM, Iain Kennedy wrote: > > List, > I would like to echo what David has said below. In fact Bill Howard, by telling us we don't need the M222 SNP test and spending time analysing what are actually pseudo-M222 people, is preventing us from discovering the origins. Identifying the surnames and geographical origins of the pre-M222 population is absolutely essential. Stating that the definition of M222 has changed will baffle those who are new to this list. It hasn't. What we should surely be doing as a minimum is doing all we can to encourage the people who stand the highest chance of being pre-M222 to take the SNP test (the only M222 test); although with back mutations I am not sure how predictable they are. There could even be people close to the modal who are M222- although as this is statistically unlikely they are admittedly not the best people to target. > > I don't want to sound ungrateful for all the work Bill is doing and his recent posts, but wanted to just take issue on this one point. > > As for the Trinity study, all their testing was done using Irish samples. They did however use the Capelli dataset for comparison with Scotland, albeit only to draw what to me sounds like a preconceived conclusion that M222 came from Ireland. The Capelli testing only used two points from the western half of Scotland - Oban and the Western Isles (Stornoway area by the looks of the map). Since then I think only Sykes has published any Scottish data on the same scale and his regions were rather on the large size for our purposes, particularly in the crucial south-west. > cheers > Iain > > http://www.kennedydna.com > > > > > >> Date: Tue, 11 Oct 2011 10:54:30 +1100 >> From: grierson@melbpc.org.au >> To: dna-r1b1c7@rootsweb.com >> Subject: Re: [R-M222] Summary of a distracting series >> >> Bob, >> I know that Bill has responded with the big picture, but I think you >> should be aware that there are plenty of STR comparisons wrt the modal >> within surname groups. For instance, in my area of interest, such >> comparisons have enabled the identification of individuals carrying >> different surnames as being part of our family cluster. >> From another perspective, the reliance on STR analysis alone limits our >> chance of finding the latest possible pre-M222 haplotype, which I think >> will be a necessary part of determining ancestral locations. Don't >> forget that it is hypothetically possible to have two identical >> haplotypes, one descended from the brother of the M222 mutant. Given >> that M222 is substantially different from L21 (or whatever the ancestral >> SNP turns out to be), there might have been a significant time interval >> during which many of the variations developed before the actual SNP >> mutation. So, despite Bill's position, I believe there is value to be >> had in modal analysis. >> David Grierson >> >> On 10/10/2011 3:00 PM, Bob Quinn wrote: >>> I am RM222 and would like to know if there is any STR by STR analysis of the modal YDNA for RM222 that would indicate what various differences to the modal might mean for an individual? >>> >>> Bob Quinn >>> >> >> R1b1c7 Research and Links: >> >> http://clanmaclochlainn.com/R1b1c7/ >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to DNA-R1B1C7-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message > > R1b1c7 Research and Links: > > http://clanmaclochlainn.com/R1b1c7/ > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to DNA-R1B1C7-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message