How many people lived in Ireland at the time the progenitor of the M222 SNP lived in 1680 BC? Here is a rough, back-of-the-envelope calculation that indicates a ball-park answer to that question, accompanied by the logic behind the computation. Please bear in mind that the figures may be accurate only to an order of magnitude. So here goes, Let us assume that the population of Ireland grows at the same rate as the population growth of the world. This is not unreasonable. Let us also assume that a generation consists of 28 years, a compromise figure between 25 and 32, which could be off by 10-20% (but remember we are after only ball-park answers). Now, the population of the world in 1960 was about 3 billion people. The origin of the SNP took place about 1680 BC (reference: the paper that John McLaughlin and I wrote together). If you look into world population statistics at the time of origin of the M222 SNP, it was about 40 million people in 1680 BC. Assuming that the growth of the world population was exponential, we compute a growth rate of 1.033 per generation to bring us to an end population of 3 billion people 130 generations later, in 1960 AD. Now, if the population of Ireland grew at the same rate, we can calculate how many people were living in Ireland in 1680 BC. The population of Ireland in 1960 was about 4.2 million people, but about that same number had left Ireland for other countries. Therefore, we can derive the starting number of Irish from the end population of 8 million people using the same factor, 1.033 per generation, as the growth rate. To fit the end result using that growth rate, the beginning population of Ireland in 1680 BC must have been about 112,000 people of whom about half, or 56,000 were males. This is the estimate of the population of Ireland at the time of origin of the M222 SNP. The largest uncertainty in this figure is probably the assumption that as many Irish with ancestry that traces to the Green Isle in 1680 BC is twice the current population of Ireland (both the Republic and Ulster), but the final number, 56,000 males, should be good to perhaps a factor of three. - Bye from Bill Howard

Bravo, Bill Howard! That ballpark estimation makes for interesting consideration. Good going! On Tue, Sep 27, 2011 at 6:10 PM, Bill Howard <weh8@verizon.net> wrote: > How many people lived in Ireland at the time the progenitor of the M222 SNP lived in 1680 BC? > > Here is a rough, back-of-the-envelope calculation that indicates a ball-park answer to that question, accompanied by the logic behind the computation. Please bear in mind that the figures may be accurate only to an order of magnitude. So here goes, > > Let us assume that the population of Ireland grows at the same rate as the population growth of the world.  This is not unreasonable. Let us also assume that a generation consists of 28 years, a compromise figure  between 25 and 32, which could be off by 10-20% (but remember we are after only ball-park answers). > > Now, the population of the world in 1960 was about 3 billion people. > The origin of the SNP took place about 1680 BC (reference: the paper that John McLaughlin and I wrote together). If you look into world population statistics at the time of origin of the M222 SNP, it was about 40 million people in 1680 BC. > > Assuming that the growth of the world population was exponential, we compute a growth rate of 1.033 per generation to bring us to an end population of 3 billion people 130 generations later, in 1960 AD. > > Now, if the population of Ireland grew at the same rate, we can calculate how many people were living in Ireland in 1680 BC. The population of Ireland in 1960 was about 4.2 million people, but about that same number had left Ireland for other countries. Therefore, we can derive the starting number of Irish from the end population of 8 million people using the same factor, 1.033 per generation, as the growth rate. To fit the end result using that growth rate, the beginning population of Ireland in 1680 BC must have been about 112,000 people of whom about half, or 56,000 were males. This is the estimate of the population of Ireland at the time of origin of the M222 SNP. > > The largest uncertainty in this figure is probably the assumption that as many Irish with ancestry that traces to the Green Isle in 1680 BC is twice the current population of Ireland (both the Republic and Ulster), but the final number, 56,000 males, should be good to perhaps a factor of three. > > - Bye from Bill Howard > > >  R1b1c7 Research and Links: > > http://clanmaclochlainn.com/R1b1c7/ > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to DNA-R1B1C7-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message >