Paul, If the two haplotype strings are statistically the same, I don't really care. They lead to the same dates. I agree, we are now beating on a dead horse. I am sorry you think I am tiresome but you don't appear to understand that the date of origin depends only on the haplotypes presented to the program, not whether or not it is a member of a particular SNP. (In the two postings immediately below, I find that only you used the word "unknown")….. - Bye from Bill Howard On Jul 10, 2011, at 6:11 PM, Paul Conroy wrote: > Bill, > > Once again M222- does NOT mean untested, it mean (sic) TESTED NEGATIVE. > > Unknown means untested. > > You're getting tiresome. > > > On 7/10/11, Bill Howard <weh8@verizon.net> wrote: >> Hi, David, >> >> I did see your posting and I apologize for being a bit tardy in my reply. >> >> I got into this when a friend suggested looking into the M222 SNP and to see >> if there is a connection between it and Niall and his descendants. My look >> at the situation indicates that, while Niall and the UiNeills may have >> carried the SNP, it cannot be proved that they did so. My date determination >> (see below) indicates that the SNP did not originate with them. >> >> In the process I became aware that one of the things that the DNA folks >> wanted to do was to try to date the origin of the M222 SNP. Since my RCC >> approach could do that estimate, I wanted to analyze haplotypes that were in >> the M222 family. >> To prepare for the analysis, I was given a large list of M222 folks, and >> later found that only some of them had been SNP tested. I found that only >> slightly in excess of 320 had actually been tested, so I collected them as a >> second database. >> >> Next, there was a list exchange that suggested that the M222 group should be >> separated into plus and minus groupings, with minus not being well-defined >> except that they had not been tested. Before that exchange I tried to see >> if I could separate the plusses and the minuses by their haplotypes alone, >> and I found that they were statistically the same. If there was a separation >> by SNP testing they certainly did not stand out as being separate from their >> haplotypes. That analysis has already been posted. >> >> Now, since they looked to be the same, I separated my analysis into the two >> databases, the ones that had been called M222, a mixture of those tested and >> untested, and only those that had been tested. I ran a TMRCA for both groups >> and found that the answers were the same within the estimated error of about >> 300 years SD. >> >> It is a bit premature at this stage to give the answer I got since it has >> not been fully discussed with my potential co-author, but it was >> considerably earlier than Niall and was more like the dates that John McEwan >> got in the BC era. More on this later. >> >> To address your question about how I can calculate a time for the mixture, I >> say that if I cannot distinguish the difference from the haplotypes and >> since Mathematica works only on those haplotypes (without any knowledge of >> which group it is being given to analyze), I should get the same answer if I >> use either the large or the small sample. And that's what I got, again >> within the uncertainty of the errors involved. The answer for the M222 plus >> sample is statistically the same as the answer from the larger database. >> That's because the haplotypes inputted to Mathematica in the two samples >> were statistically the same. So, if you want the answer to dating M222 plus >> alone, it is the same date. I think that my analysis has been professionally >> rigorous given the statistical equalities within the two databases. I hope >> this answers your questions, David. >> >> - Bye from Bill Howard >> >> >> >> On Jul 10, 2011, at 4:10 PM, David H. MacLennan wrote: >> >>> Dear Bill, >>> Yesterday I posted a note concerning the M222 SNP status of your data >>> (see below), but you have not responded. Can you please comment on what I >>> said. I am particularly concerned about your dating of the time of the >>> M222 >>> mutation. If you are looking at samples of M222+ that are mixed with >>> M222-, >>> how can you calculate a time of the mutation? >>> David >>> >>> Dear Bill, >>> As a biological scientist I find it distressing that you and others are >>> trying to convince us that it doesn't really matter if your SNP test does >>> or >>> does not show that you are M222+, you can still be included in the M222 >>> project on the basis of your STR haplotype. Data based on such an >>> assumption >>> would not be acceptable in a rigorous scientific journal. >>> It would seem to me that the benchmark of the M222 project should be >>> the >>> presence of M222+. At some stage in our background two brothers may have >>> had >>> an identical or nearly identical STR haplotype, but brother one had a de >>> novo mutation that created the M222 SNP and brother two did not. The >>> descendants of brother one would be M222+ and the descendants of brother >>> two >>> would be M222-. This de novo mutation occurred at a specific date and we >>> would all be very interested in that date. However, if the samples used to >>> measure that date are a mixture of = and - SNPs, then you can't measure >>> the >>> date of appearance of M222 accurately because common STR haplotypes would >>> predate the appearance of the M222 SNP. >>> Let's focus on the rigor of the analysis, not the cost of SNP testing. >>> David >>> >>> -- >>> Dr. David H. MacLennan, >>> Banting and Best Department of Medical Research, >>> University of Toronto, Charles H. Best Institute, >>> 112 College St., Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5G1L6 >>> Tel:1-416-978-5008 Fax:1-416-978-8528 >>> http://www.utoronto.ca/maclennan >>> >>> >> >> >> R1b1c7 Research and Links: >> >> http://clanmaclochlainn.com/R1b1c7/ >> ------------------------------- >> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to >> DNA-R1B1C7-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the >> quotes in the subject and the body of the message >> > > -- > Sent from my mobile device > R1b1c7 Research and Links: > > http://clanmaclochlainn.com/R1b1c7/ > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to DNA-R1B1C7-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message