It's also possible the common ancestor is back past Charles Coats in MD...the bottom line is they are related, they have a common ancestor, but we don't know who that is or where it is on the time line...we just don't have the documents to clear any of the relationships up for these three...so anything other than that is just speculation at this point... On Wed, Jul 30, 2008 at 10:18 AM, Linda Coate <lcoate@ancestrees.com> wrote: > Point taken. Uncle and Nephew are possible even though they were born > 2 years apart. The 1st cousin, 8 times removed can be excluded > because they are equal distant in time on the ladder back to common > ancestors. However, it could be a 1st cousin, 1 times removed.... > something close to that and still fit into the mathematical information > that these tests give us. Let's not make this harder than it needs to > be. What DNA evidence tells us is that James Robert and Maj. John > Coats are very likely to be closely related. Is that better? Linda > > Coats Family History wrote: >> This only means they have a possible common ancestor at some point >> back those generations, they could be uncle, nephew as well...or 8th >> cousins, what is that 1st cousins 8 times removed...we just don't >> know...so you can't determine what that relationship is, other than >> they have a common ancestor somewhere in there.... >> >> and that common ancestor could be anywhere within that time frame or >> not...so be careful assigning relationships based on the DNA... >> >> They could be half brothers as well... >> >> This group somewhere has a common ancestor, we just don't know where.... >> >> On Wed, Jul 30, 2008 at 8:56 AM, Linda Coate <lcoate@ancestrees.com> wrote: >> >>> Here is a current chart to help everyone understand the likelyhood of >>> how you are related to other members of your DNA group. What it means >>> is that if you and another member match 12 out of 12 points, you have a >>> 50% probability of being related within 7 generations (Look at Column 2, >>> 3rd line down). If you match 37 out of 37 points, you have a 90% >>> probability that you have your most recent common ancestor within 5 >>> generations. >>> >>> So, let's look at the new findings in the James Robert/John/William group. >>> Kit 13696 is the kit that has the average set of numbers for this >>> group. It goes back through Maj. John Coats by his son John Green Coats. >>> All the other kits have some variations from this kit. >>> Major John Coats matches kit 54678 (ancestor Irving Coates) is 24 out of >>> 25 loci. It means that they have a 90% chance of having their common >>> ancestor anywhere within the last 16 generations. >>> Ancestor Major John Coats matches Ancestor James Robert Coats kit in 36 >>> out of 37 points. It means that they have a 90% chance of having their >>> common ancestor anywhere within the last 8 generations. I believe >>> that Ancestor Major John Coats and Ancestor James Robert Coats are 6 >>> generations back from the descendant who participated in the project. >>> (Please verify this or make corrections if this is wrong) If they are >>> 6 generations back, then my previous letter was suggesting that we have >>> a 90% likelihood that these two people are either 1st cousins or >>> brothers. We know they aren't related more recently in time. If they >>> have a common father at the 7th generation, they are brothers and if >>> they have a common ancestor at the 8th generation, they are 1st cousins. >>> We have a 10% chance that they aren't and a 90% chance that they >>> are. We can use the math to help us formulate ways to research and >>> think about our possible connections, all the while remembering there is >>> a chance that the common ancestor goes back further. Does this make >>> sense? Enjoy. You can find this table at the site listed below. >>> Linda Coate >>> >>> Table 1. Probability for Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA) *From: >>> http://www.familytreedna.com/faq2.html >>> >>> *Number of >>> matching markers >>> Column 1 >>> * >>> >>> *50% probability that the MRCA was no longer than this number of generations >>> Column 2 >>> * >>> >>> *90% probability that the MRCA was no longer than this number of generations >>> Column 3 >>> * >>> >>> *95% probability that the MRCA was no longer than this number of generations >>> Column 4 >>> * >>> *10 of 10* >>> >>> *16.5* >>> >>> *56* >>> >>> *72* >>> *11 of 12* >>> >>> *17* >>> >>> *39* >>> >>> *47* >>> *12 of 12* >>> >>> *7* >>> >>> *23* >>> >>> *29* >>> *23 of 25* >>> >>> *11* >>> >>> *23* >>> >>> *27* >>> *24 of 25* >>> >>> *7* >>> >>> *16* >>> >>> *20* >>> *25 of 25* >>> >>> *3* >>> >>> *10* >>> >>> *13* >>> *35 of 37* >>> >>> *6* >>> >>> *12* >>> >>> *14* >>> *36 of 37* >>> >>> *4* >>> >>> *8* >>> >>> *10* >>> *37 of 37* >>> >>> *2 to 3 * >>> >>> *5* >>> >>> *7* >>> *65 of 67* >>> >>> *6* >>> >>> *12* >>> >>> *14* >>> *66 of 67* >>> >>> *4* >>> >>> *8* >>> >>> *9* >>> *67 of 67* >>> >>> *2* >>> >>> *4* >>> >>> *6* >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> ------------------------------- >>> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to COATES-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message >>> >>> >> >> >> >> > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to COATES-request@rootsweb.com with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message > -- A shameless plug for my web activities: Support Authentic Cherokee Art - ask for the Artist's Tribal registration number before you buy!! 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