John R. Carpenter wrote: << We have a genetic probability of about 90% that our [Rehoboth and Providence Carpenter descendants'] common Carpenter ancestor was born 450 years ago. That is two generations or first cousins in genealogy. That is getting very close. That the two William Carpenters are related as first cousins is possible but less likely than being them being second cousins or third cousins. Without a paper trial we can only predict the probability. << We could say that we have a Very High probability that me (Rehoboth branch) and the other Providence Carpenter have a common ancestor within the last 40 generations or 1000 years. That is still close in the genetic sense when you understand that our "humanoid" DNA has been around for at least 60,000 years. >> Each of the paragraphs above appears to contain an analysis of the Y-DNA data that conflicts with the other. While the first seems to be based on wishful thinking, the second gives a connotation to the word "close" that is so broad as to be valueless in the discussion of the two Williams' common ancestor. John Chandler, who is the expert in this matter, has analyzed the Y-DNA data thus: << Mathematically, the best guess at the interval [from the two Williams back to a common ancestor] would be 8 generations, but the range of plausible values goes from 2 to 50 generations (based solely on the DNA comparison). Actually, 1 generation is also *possible*, but is very unlikely, based on the DNA alone. The shared surname obviously favors the low end of that range, but it's wise to keep in mind that the 2-generation interval (i.e., 1st cousins) is just at the limit of being plausible. >> John R. continues: << Previous Carpenter genealogies with poor documentation and found to be in error because of misreading of wills gave the common ancestor, also named William Carpenter (of Homme), as being born circa 1440 in England. >> The genealogy that has had the most influence in recent years is based on the unsupported claims of Raymond Carpenter and Harry Rogers (1971) and had been propounded by John R. Tailored to fit RC and HR's assumption that the two Williams were first cousins (based on a debatable interpretation of wording in the will of William2 of Rehoboth), it gives their common ancestor not as William of Homme but as Robert of Marden, who they assert, with no real evidence, was the father of Richard of Amesbury, whose son was William1 of Providence, and William1 of Shalbourne, Wherwell (briefly), and the _Bevis_ (b. ca. 1576), whose son was William2 of Rehoboth. << This is about 160 years or 6 generations before our two William Carpenters that came to America. It is about then, I predict or give my best guess, is where our common Carpenter ancestor lived in time. >> I'm at a loss as to the basis for such a prediction. See John Chandler's carefully worded analysis, above. Gene Z.