"If two people match 25 markers to 25 markers with the same surname the 90% possibility of a common ancestor is a bit over 250 years or 10 generations using 25 years as a generation. While it is possible, as John Chandler mentioned, for them to be first cousins, the probability of them being related within 50 years or 2 generations is less than 60%. (using FTDNATip Report)" I thought the Rehoboth/Providence problem was a 24/25 match. My understanding of the matter was that if there is a 24 of 25 marker match, there is a 50% probability that the most recent common ancestor is 17 generations or LESS. This I thought to mean that from about the year 1500 until the present a Rehoboth/Providence common ancestor is 50% possible. I admire what everyone has done on the DNA project and please continue. However, please beware of unclear writing. Your DNA page needs an editor. BC Nara, Japan

Bruce E., You, Bruce E. Carpenter wrote, "I thought the Rehoboth/Providence problem was a 24/25 match." I, John R. Carpenter wrote ... "If two people match 25 markers to 25 markers with the same surname the 90% possibility of a common ancestor is a bit over 250 years or 10 generations using 25 years as a generation. While it is possible, as John Chandler mentioned, for them to be first cousins, the probability of them being related within 50 years or 2 generations is less than 60%. (using FTDNATip Report)" Four paragraphs down I clearly state that the Providence & Rehoboth groups match 24/25 and explain where they don't match in the DYS markers. "The difference (mutation) between the Rehoboth and the Providence branch of the Carpenter families who most likely came over from England in the 1630s plus or minus a few years - <GRIN> for Gene - is a single marker called DYS 464d, which is 16 for the Providence branch (Group 2 on the Carpenter Cousins Y-DNA web page) and 17 for the Rehoboth branch (Group 3). In comparing the 25 markers for each group the match is 24/25. The genetic distance is 1. "1" is very close in the genetic sense. These DYS 25 markers change 1 mutation about an average every 500 years. Research is being conducted on some that appear to mutate faster. The time calculations of mutations are highly dependent on both the mutation rate and model assumed." Please remember that there are a few slightly different models and mutation schedules of calculating how people are related using Y-DNA. I got my data from the FTDNATiP calculator. Let me restate, "The time calculations of mutations are highly dependent on both the mutation rate and model assumed." Bruce E. Carpenter wrote, "I admire what everyone has done on the DNA project and please continue. However, please beware of unclear writing. Your DNA page needs an editor." Why, Thank you. Just to let you know that the ISOGG - International Society of Genetic Genealogists - did a peer review of our Carpenter Cousins Y-DNA Project web page and gave it very high marks. They stated that the explanations and writing were very clear. We continue to make changes here and there to continue to be one of the best Y-DNA web pages out in cyber space. John F. Chanlder has been complemented as providing a "carefully worded analysis" and has had major input on several DNA web sites. He is well regarding by many in his field of education and his contrbution to DNA research and analysis. He has taught me and others about Y-DNA for which we are very grateful. Recently John F. Chandler received a Certificate of Appreciation that read in part ... "This Certificate recognizes your effort and commitment to better understand the Carpenter Family Ancestry through Genealogy and Y-DNA Research. In addition you are to be commended regarding your effort to teach & help others understand & apply DNA in the Carpenter Family." Bruce, I would like to encourage you to submit your Y-DNA to the Carpenter Cousins Y-DNA Project. Y-DNA from your line would help us understand the Carpenter Family more clearly. Please join our Carpenter Cousins Y-DNA Project at: http://www.familytreedna.com/surname_join.asp?code=S82066 Regards, John R. Carpenter La Mesa, CA ----- Original Message ----- From: <[email protected]> To: <[email protected]> Sent: Saturday, October 29, 2005 11:42 PM Subject: 25 markers > "If two people match 25 markers to 25 markers with the same surname the > 90% > possibility of a common ancestor is a bit over 250 years or 10 generations > using 25 years as a generation. While it is possible, as John Chandler > mentioned, for them to be first cousins, the probability of them being > related within 50 years or 2 generations is less than 60%. (using FTDNATip > Report)" > > I thought the Rehoboth/Providence problem was a 24/25 match. My > understanding of the matter was that if there is a 24 of 25 marker match, > there is a 50% probability that > the most recent common ancestor is 17 generations or LESS. This I thought > to mean that from about the year 1500 until the present a > Rehoboth/Providence common ancestor is 50% possible. > > I admire what everyone has done on the DNA project and please continue. > However, please beware of unclear writing. Your DNA page needs an editor. > > BC > Nara, Japan > > ______________________________

Bruce wrote: > I thought the Rehoboth/Providence problem was a 24/25 match. My > understanding of the matter was that if there is a 24 of 25 marker match, > there is a 50% probability that > the most recent common ancestor is 17 generations or LESS. That is approximately correct, but the count of 17 generations starts at the two people furthest back whose DNA matches 24/25, i.e., the two Williams. In other words, it could easily be several centuries before 1600. > I admire what everyone has done on the DNA project and please continue. > However, please beware of unclear writing. Your DNA page needs an editor. If you could point out particular passages that are unclear, it would be very helpful. The same goes for anyone else here who has visited the DNA project page and has unanswered questions. Feel free to ask. John Chandler