Dear All, I decided to download the latest Family Finder data for my wife's parents, my wife, my parents, and me yesterday. I then analyzed the data so see how many people appear in the FF match lists for my wife and me who don't appear in the FF match lists our parents. I then used that data to create my own statistics regarding the percentage of matches at various segment lengths in cMs to see how my data compares to the statistics that John Walden generated. Here are my results: cMs %IBD %IBS >11 100 (52/52) 0 10-11 80 (12/15) 20 9-10 93 (25/27) 7 8-9 81 (34/42) 19 7-8 46 (11/24) 54 6-7 67 (4/6) 33 5-6 40 (6/15) 60 4-5 20 (10/51) 80 3.5-4 17 (11/66) 83 Below are John Walden's results from his analysis that I posted in another message several days ago: cM %IBD %IBS 10 99 1 9 80 20 8 50 50 7 30 70 6 20 80 5 5 95 My results would suggest that a higher percentage of matches under 9 cMs in length are IBD than John's analysis would suggest. In any case, it would appear that a significant percentage of matches in the 6-9 cM range are IBS. If any of the rest of you have two parent/one child trio data in Family Finder it would be interesting to see if your results are similar to mine. Sincerely, Tim Janzen -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Jim Bartlett Sent: Friday, January 06, 2012 8:19 PM To: [email protected]; [email protected] Subject: Re: [AUTOSOMAL-DNA] SUBJECT: How do you work a 5 way FF match with few clues ? Sam What is the "big issue" about unphased data? As always, my reference is to genealogy. I can see where it would help, some, to know if a match was on my Dad or Mom's side, but SURNAMES and geography can help there, too. And even if I knew which parent my match was on, I still wouldn't know which grandparent. Jim

Tim Even without my coffee yet, I can look at this data and say my cup is half full;>) As a genealogist, there's gold in them thar hills! Even at 4cM 1/6 are IBD. The FTDNA cutoff of 7.7cM still gives at least a 50/50 chance (probably 75%, if you draw the curve for your data), or better, that each one they report is IBD. Or 3 of 4 are probably IBD. I wish I could get 50 percent of my 23&me matches to even accept my invitations. By providing an easy to scan list of my Patriarchs, and being persistent, I've heard back from over 80 percent of my FF matches, and confirmed the Common Ancestor with 20 percent (I don't know, yet, if they are IBS or IBD). Based on your data, I can assume most are actually IBD, partly because we did find a Common Ancestor, where as the others and I haven't. I'm not that good with statistics. My estimate that 3/4 of FF matches are IBD, is based on the 7.7cM or more large segment each one has. I wonder how many of the other 1/4 have at least one of the smaller segments that is IBD? I thought the FTDNA algorithm included other factors, that increased the probability that our FF matches were really cousins - this would be the icing on the cake for me (and really jazz up my presentations) Tim, could you look at your data again, and see what percentage of your FF matches have no IBD segments at all? Thanks - this is turning into a much more up beat discussion;>j Jim - Sent from my iPhone - FaceTime! On Jan 9, 2012, at 3:28 AM, "Tim Janzen" <[email protected]> wrote: > Dear All, > I decided to download the latest Family Finder data for my wife's > parents, my wife, my parents, and me yesterday. I then analyzed the data so > see how many people appear in the FF match lists for my wife and me who > don't appear in the FF match lists our parents. I then used that data to > create my own statistics regarding the percentage of matches at various > segment lengths in cMs to see how my data compares to the statistics that > John Walden generated. > Here are my results: > cMs %IBD %IBS >> 11 100 (52/52) 0 > 10-11 80 (12/15) 20 > 9-10 93 (25/27) 7 > 8-9 81 (34/42) 19 > 7-8 46 (11/24) 54 > 6-7 67 (4/6) 33 > 5-6 40 (6/15) 60 > 4-5 20 (10/51) 80 > 3.5-4 17 (11/66) 83 > > Below are John Walden's results from his analysis that I posted in > another message several days ago: > cM %IBD %IBS > 10 99 1 > 9 80 20 > 8 50 50 > 7 30 70 > 6 20 80 > 5 5 95 > > My results would suggest that a higher percentage of matches under 9 cMs in > length are IBD than John's analysis would suggest. In any case, it would > appear that a significant percentage of matches in the 6-9 cM range are IBS. > If any of the rest of you have two parent/one child trio data in Family > Finder it would be interesting to see if your results are similar to mine. > > Sincerely, > Tim Janzen > > -----Original Message----- > From: [email protected] > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Jim Bartlett > Sent: Friday, January 06, 2012 8:19 PM > To: [email protected]; [email protected] > Subject: Re: [AUTOSOMAL-DNA] SUBJECT: How do you work a 5 way FF match with > few clues ? > > Sam > > What is the "big issue" about unphased data? As always, my reference is to > genealogy. > > I can see where it would help, some, to know if a match was on my Dad or > Mom's side, but SURNAMES and geography can help there, too. And even if I > knew which parent my match was on, I still wouldn't know which grandparent. > > Jim > > > > ______________________________ > For answers to Frequently Asked Questions about mailing lists, please see: > http://dgmweb.net/MailingListFAQs.html > > > ------------------------------- > To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to [email protected] with the word 'unsubscribe' without the quotes in the subject and the body of the message