"James L. Stokes" <jlstokes@supernet.com> wrote: >John, > I think your being too hard nosed. These are probably the only numbers >we will ever have, they come from a reliable source who cites numbers that >are against his interests, so just on that point we have to acknowledge >them. Acknowledge, yes. [Though I still haven't seen anyone cite when or where Adams gave those numbers. Knowing the context might give some basis for Adams' 'fudge factor'.- or if he was even talking about our Revolution.] But we do have other estimates. Some folks have alluded to Adams making contradictory statements himself. Here's what Ambrose Serle wrote in April of 78 after discussing the numbers for an evening with Joseph Galloway. [For anyone who isn't familiar with these two gents; Ambrose Serle was secretary to Lord Howe & in my opinion as good a diarist as John Adams. Joseph Galloway was a former Continental Congressman who commanded a great deal of respect. He was one of the PA delegation that left the Congress when the rest voted for Independence.] I'm not sure if I agree with all Serle's numbers- but it is notable that he puts 'neuters' at one half. And this is a man who has spent 2 yrs in occupied NY, has interviewed many prisoners, and is now in occupied Philly. His bottom line is - 100,000 military age men left in 1778 30-50% Neutral 20% Loyalist 30-50% Patriots [Not that far off from Adams' numbers, except for Loyalists, where one would expect Serle to be generous.] "Diary of Ambrose Serle" pp287-8 "And as to men, allowing the number of Inhabitants at the Beginning of the Rebellion to have been what the Rebels estimated -- 3 millions White & Black; by the best Calculation, the number of fighting men of both kinds could not amount at first to more than about 220,000. Of these (and these mostly, if not entirely, Whites) not less than 50,000 have perished by End of the Year 1777, upon a nigh Computation, by Sickness & the Sword, the People here not having the requisite Stamina to endure the Rigors of Campaigns. The Camp Diseases, being contagious, have carried off great numbers of other People, who had no medicines to assist them; the little to be procured being all taken up for the Use of the Rebel-Army. Since the Beginning of this Year, they have lost by Desertion, Disease & the Sword, near 4000 men, who can be accounted for by us, besides those, who are gone off unknown. There then remain not many more than 150,000; and one third these at least may be estimated Blacks. We have then 100,000. Of these we must make a Division into Friends, Enemies, moderate or Neuters, and of the last it is presumed, as in other Cases of the kind, there are most; possibly, one half of the whole. But, saying, one third, and allowing that we have 20,000 Friends scattered over this Continent (though it be credited we have many more), it then proves very clearly why Mr. Washington's Army is at so low an Ebb, and why such Extremities are used to compel men to join it. It also proves, that the present British Force, duly exerted, has but little to fear; and that this unnatural Outrage, deprived of foreign Assistance & destitute of internal Succours, could not possibly last long, and of course that Peace might soon restored to this distracted Land. > As a politician it would have been Adam's business to know how people >thought. Not for the greatest part of the war, when he was an envoy in France. It s then his duty to do whatever Congress told him. And even in the beginning, he was elected by the legislature of MA, so he was representing MA first, if any bias was to show, and he need only impress the legislature to be re-elected. > I don't think any academic can afford to ignore the thirds suggested by >John Adams since there are no better numbers to replace them and I don't >think there ever will be any better numbers. I offer this set by Serle, and invite others to post numbers they've seen anywhere by participants from both sides. [or even better by a 'neuter'] I think when and where they were compiled is of utmost importance because the numbers were so fluid both in reference to time and geography. I'd be willing to wager that at least a third was a member of at least 2 of the 3 groups at some time between 1776-1783. Jim [Elbrecht- lest someone just looks at signatures]